AS GOOD AS IT BETS
YOUR GUIDE TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL, NFL WAGERING
IT HAS been a strange season for the Vikings. They started out 1-5, reversed that and made it to 6-6, and then just when the playoffs were coming into range, they lost back-to-back games at and at home to the Bears.
Now the Norsemen head south to New Orleans on a short week and will put a decimated defense on the field against Drew Brees and the Saints on Christmas Day. No fewer than six starters on that side of the ball are dealing with reportable injuries. The Saints have some injuries on their offense, as WR Michael Thomas is on IR and guards Andrus Peat and Nick Easton could be missing. But there’s still plenty of firepower and ingenuity on the Saints side, particulary with the NFC South title there to be clinched.
The pick: Saints, -7.
SATURDAY
Buccaneers (-9) over LIONS: Tom Brady shouldn’t have much trouble against a Detroit team that has given up 41, 30, 31 and 46 points in its last four games. Brave Matthew Stafford will probably try to keep playing with his bad ribs, but he could be down three starting offensive linemen for this one. Also not a good sign that the Lions don’t even know who will be available to coach after a COVID-19 outbreak in their building.
CARDINALS (-5) over 49ers: Have to wonder if the COVID-related eviction from their home county has taken a toll on the 49ers. This is essentially their sixth road game in a row. The Cardinals have gotten hot at the right time and will be all out to try to hold on to an NFC wildcard bid.
Dolphins (-3) over RAID
ERS: I may choke on the dust of all of this Friday/Saturday chalk, but I have to ride the Dolphins, winners of 8 of 10, owners of the best spread record in the NFL (11-3) and in a battle with the Ravens for the final AFC wild card. Raiders will come to play but have a lot of key injuries on offense.
SUNDAY
RAVENS (-10.5) over Giants: Baltimore’s offense is finally rolling as it has put up 40 points a game over the last three weeks, including 47 against a Browns team that gave up six points to the Giants last week. Daniel Jones could be back, but as we saw a few weeks ago, if he’s not mobile he’s not a huge upgrade over Colt McCoy. Giants haven’t reached 20 points in any of their past four games.
Jets (+9.5) over BROWNS: Worried the Jets will be overconfident due to their one-game winning streak? The Browns are potent, but the Jets might finally be getting somewhere. The play calling was very good in LA and Ty Johnson can be a weapon on the ground if the passing game is working. Didn’t buy in with the Lions, but home underdogs +7 or more are 5-1 ATS this season, per VSiN.
Falcons (+10.5) over CHIEFS: Kansas City would clinch AFC’s top seed and the division’s coveted lone bye with a win, but that doesn’t need to be by a lot. The Chiefs had five wins/non-covers in a row before covering by a halfpoint in a 32-29 win at the Saints last week. Falcons blew another huge lead to Brady but have the firepower to hang around here.
STEELERS (+2) over Colts: Amazing that the Steelers have gone from 11-0 to home underdogs in three weeks. Ben Roethlisberger looked 75 in the loss at Cincinnati, and this is a short week, too. Respect the Colts, but have every confidence Mike Tomlin will get this fixed.
Jaguars (+7.5) over BEARS: Doug Marrone swears his Jaguars team is still playing to win, not sitting on the newfound No. 1 pick for Trevor Lawrence. Bears have been hot on offense (33 points a game in their last three), but have been unreliable for the long haul. The longtime Jets watcher in me can envision the Jags teasing a Lawrence give-back in a close loss.
TEXANS (-8) over Bengals: Not thrilled with laying so many points with the Texans, but the Bengals travel on a short week after a stunning win over the Steelers in what essentially was their Super Bowl. Hard to match that emotion and intensity.
Panthers (+2) over WASHINGTON: The Maskless QB in Topless Bar, Dwayne Haskins, apparently is not getting suspended and looks to be in line to start if Alex Smith (calf ) can’t return. But I’ll take a few points with Teddy Bridgewater, who as an underdog is 7-3 ATS this season and 24-6 in his career.
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Broncos: Both teams come in with extra rest, the Chargers with a few days more after their Thursday win over the Raiders. The Bills’ Josh Allen really showed the Bolts’ Justin Herbert where all the holes are in the Denver defense.
COWBOYS (+2.5) over Eagles: A wave of Eagles money flipped this line from Cowboys -1 to where it is now, presumably on the promise Jalen Hurts has shown the past two weeks. Only thing is, now there’s some film on Hurts to help defensive coordinators. Eagles also would be eliminated from the playoffs around kickoff if Washington wins.
Rams (+1.5) over SEAHAWKS: How do teams react after a loss to the Jets? Well, we’ll finally find out. The Rams sleepwalked through the first half and couldn’t come through in the end. Figuring we’ll go from the worst of Sean McVay and Jared Goff to the best of them here.
Titans (+3.5) over PACKERS: Happy to grab some points with a Tennessee team that has averaged 37.4 points a game over the past five. Derrick Henry has four 100plus rushing games, including a 178 and a 215 in that span.
MONDAY
BILLS (-7) over Patriots: I know it’s probably too many points to give the Patriots, but this Bills offense is looking like the perfect beast, as Allen can find the best way on seemingly every play. Playoff seeding motivation is light, but the Bills probably wouldn’t mind paying the Patriots back for past abuse.
BEST BETS: Dolphins, ers, Falcons.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dolphins (Locks 4-10-1 in 2020).
LAST WEEK: 8-6-2 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.
Steel