Alabama-Clemson (Part 5) would be a good thing, really
AFTER all that, it’s possible — perhaps even likely — we will be given another serving of Alabama-Clemson. If both teams win in the playoff semifinals on Friday, college football’s mightiest, familiar giants will once again touch gloves.
It has become an annual tradition. Since 2016, Alabama and Clemson have faced each other four times: three times in the national championship and once in the semifinals. Two of those games were all-time epics and two were blowouts. Each team is 2-2.
A fifth installment likely won’t be largely appreciated, given the familiarity. But if these two meet in the national championship, I, for one, would be thrilled.
To me, greatness doesn’t get old. Though the storylines connecting Dabo Swinney to his Alabama roots grow tiresome, the excellence on the football field would be worth it.
I understand why many would be fatigued. We’ve seen it plenty. But the drama surrounding Trevor Lawrence’s final college game against a historic Alabama offense (and a future Heisman Trophy winner still to be determined) would be delightful.
We have two games to go before we get there. One is much easier to solve than the other. If we do end up with AlabamaClemson V, however, don’t be mad at the familiarity of it all. Embrace the greatness.
Rose Bowl: Alabama (-20, 65.5) vs. Notre Dame — The last time these teams met, in the 2013 national title game, Notre Dame was overwhelmingly overmatched was throttled by Alabama, 42-14. Nothing about that game should factor into this game. And yet, an undeniable truth still lingers. Alabama has the talent advantage at just about every position. It has the star power. It has three of the top five Heisman finalists. It has the best coach to ever angrily pace a sideline. It has, well, the type of advantages you expect a 20-point favorite to have.
Nick Saban’s team is a dominant 11-0 and a superb 8-3 against the spread. Alabama did not cover against Florida as a 16point favorite in the SEC championship game, however, and the Gators demonstrated that Alabama’s improving defense wasn’t completely fixed when it scored 46 points.
Notre Dame doesn’t possess the same offensive pieces or philosophy as Florida. It’s not nearly as explosive, which was evident against Clemson in the ACC title game. The Irish lost 34-10 as an 11-point underdog, and it frankly didn’t feel that close. Despite going 10-1, Brian Kelly’s team went 5-5 ATS
It’s certainly possible Notre Dame covers. It’s a big number.
It’s also possible this game unfolds how you expect it to: The Irish can’t go blow-for-blow with the best offense in the country and the game quickly spirals.
It would take a lot for Notre Dame to make this a game.
Possible? Of course. Likely? Given what we’ve seen, no.
Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-7.5, 66.5) vs. Ohio State — There is real animosity brewing between these teams and coaches, and that’s a good thing. Swinney ranked Ohio State No. 11 in his final coaches poll ballot — information that is very public and likely featured prominently in the Ohio State locker room.
Ryan Day, videotaped in the locker room after the Big Ten championship game, uncorked a solid, NSFW rant about how he felt Ohio State stacked up with the other contenders.
Oh, and the teams played last season in a semifinal that was rife with officiating controversy. Clemson won and covered as a 2.5-point favorite in a fantastic football game.
Animosity is good. In fact, for a playoff game, it’s pretty rare. Given the nature of 2020, we’ll take all the drama we can get.
Ohio State remains a bit of a mystery. We know the Buckeyes are 6-0 and only 3-3 ATS. We know quarterback Justin Fields can look like a superhero at times and mortal at others. We also know the Buckeyes finished with a passing defense outside the nation’s top 100, which could be an unfair way to assess their talent — or a fairly accurate way.
That’s the difficult aspect of this game given the sample size, and Clemson certainly complicates matters. With Lawrence back at quarterback, Clemson completely overwhelmed Notre Dame in their rematch.
Clemson was 10-1 this season but only 5-6 ATS. It’s worth noting two of those ATS losses came in the two games Lawrence missed, and the Tigers covered in their last three games.
The Clemson defense also seemed to improve late in the season. The difference between this offense and the one Ohio State saw last season, however, is the weapons. Though running back Travis Etienne is an allworld receiver at running back, the departure of Tee Higgins and the injury loss of Justyn Ross changes the matchups. Clemson still has plenty of capable pass catchers, but not at the same level.
Still, the Ohio State secondary has not been great and Lawrence is, well, on a completely different level from anyone on the field.
The obvious play is Clemson. It might be the right side, too. And yet, I feel as if we could get a similar game to last season’s.
Adam Kramer writes for VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.