Three live ’dogs to open playoffs
VSiN’s NFL expert dives into betting angles for the three Saturday NFL playoff games:
Colts at Bills (-6.5, 51.5): It’s always easier to make an argument for the favorite, and Buffalo has a strong case. The Bills went 9-1 in their last 10 games — losing only at Arizona on Kyler Murray’s Hail Mary — and scored 38.2 points per game during a six-game win streak to close the regular season. Josh Allen has performed better than every quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs has turned into one of the league’s top five wide receivers and Sean McDermott might be Coach of the Year. But enough with the obvious.
A case also can be made for an 11-win team that was favored in 14 of 16 games and is now a big underdog. The Colts rank in the NFL’s top 10 in total defense (No. 8) and total offense (No. 10). Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 253 yards in the regular-season finale. The trend for several years has been to bet on Philip Rivers in the road ’dog role. Two years ago, Rivers was a road ’dog with the Chargers in a playoff win at Baltimore.
Allen flopped in his only playoff start last year, when his late meltdown led to a loss at Houston. Rivers’ postseason experience should be worth something. Sharp money forced this line move from 7 to 6.5, but the public will probably bet the Bills back to -7 before kickoff. I’ll take the points with the Colts as somewhat of a contrarian play.
Rams at Seahawks (-3, 41.5): Who wants to bet on John Wolford to beat Russell Wilson? Nobody. Fortunately for the Rams, this is not a one-on-one game between the quarterbacks. Who wants to side with an underdog that ranks No. 1 in the league in scoring defense (18.5 ppg) and total defense? I’ll put my money on a defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. The Rams are as good as it gets at pressuring quarterbacks, and Ramsey has shown he can contain DK Metcalf, Seattle’s top receiver.
The Rams could be without Jared Goff, who had right thumb surgery on Dec. 28, but Wolford might actually be the better option due to his mobility. The Rams should be able to keep things close with their defense and running attack. Most signs point to a low-scoring brawl that could be decided by a field goal either way.
Buccaneers at Washington (+7.5, 44.5): Tom Brady put up big numbers down the stretch, but he also did that damage against soft defenses. It’s no secret Washington’s physical defensive front is the team’s strength, and Brady’s weakness is dealing with pass-rush pressure. The plan laid out by Washington coach Ron Rivera from the beginning was to make games ugly and get a chance to win in the fourth quarter, and the plan is no different this week.
Washington went 5-1 with veteran quarterback Alex Smith as the starter and 2-8 with other starters, so this is not a 7-9 team to write off in the playoffs. Smith hopes to play despite a calf injury, with Taylor Heinicke ready if Smith is injured or ineffective.
Tampa Bay beat only one team that finished with a winning record this season: the Packers. In Brady’s last 10 away playoff games with the Patriots, he was 4-6, with one win by more than six points. Washington’s defense did not allow more than 20 points in any of its last seven games. The Buccaneers probably will survive and advance — bet the favorite on a teaser at -2.5 if you want action on that side — but this might not be easy for Brady.