PRICE FOR LINDOR PUMA, SHERMAN P. 34-35
Roster construction will be tricky build, even for Cohen
FRANCISCO Lindor brings talent and joy to the Mets. He brings five tools of baseball and 71 inches of energy. He brings two Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and a chance to be bronzed in Cooperstown some day.
He also brings the Mets yet another walk-year contract.
This is not insignificant, even for an organization now supported by the richest owner in the sport. Steve Cohen has insisted that his Mets will operate financially like a big-market franchise. But he also has tempered that by saying they will not “spend like drunken sailors.” Cohen can always pivot, but the early indicators are that he is not going to blow up to a $300 million payroll, not even $250 million any time soon.
Here in Year 1 of his regime, he has indicated he would like to stay under the $210 million luxury tax threshold.
On that roster, he currently also has outfielder Michael Conforto and three starting pitchers — Steven Matz, Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard — as walk-year players. In addition, three relievers — Dellin Betances, Brad Brach and Jeurys Familia— will be free agents after the 2021 season. Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo and Brandon Nimmo will be looking at big pay jumps in their final years of arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason, the same with J.D. Davis and Dom Smith in their second years, and Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil in their first years. And here is one not to forget — Robinson Cano, off the Mets payroll this year following a failed test for a PED, will be owed $40.5 million for 2022-23 even if he never plays again for the team.
So if an organization has a payroll budget, then decisions to, say, extend Lindor or sign George Springer cannot be made in a vacuum. There is connectivity to what the financial horizons are to the whole group and what the needs of the roster will be.
It is pertinent now since the assumption has been that the Mets did not just obtain Lindor for the 2021 season. At some point, they will try to discern if there is common ground with Lindor that Cleveland could not find when it tried to do an early extension a few years back.
Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120 million extension with the Red Sox entering his walk year at age 26 in 2019. But his production to that point on both sides of the ball was not as bountiful as Lindor’s has been. Mookie Betts, after being traded last year prior to his age-27 season, signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers. Lindor, about to enter his age-27 season following a trade, plays a more valuable position than Betts but falls short of his production.
So you could see the wide swath that the Mets and Lindor might have to bridge. My suspicion is that Lindor — with the leverage of knowing a New York team does not want to have traded for him and have him stay for only one year — will go ahead and try free agency if the Mets do not nudge beyond the 10 years at $300 million the Padres gave Manny Machado in 2019.
For the set that says, “Just get it done,” note that on Baseball Reference the two similarity scores closest to Lindor through age-26 belong to Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez, who to that point in their careers seemed destined for Cooperstown yet by 30 were done as durable, impact players. Further down in the top 10 are Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Derek Jeter and Cal Ripken Jr. But long-term deals are risky — as the teams that signed Tulowitzki and Ramirez certainly learned.
But let’s assume that the Mets intend to go long with Lindor. What does that mean elsewhere, especially related to other roster pieces?
Can the Mets still sign Springer and stay under $210 million this year? Maybe. But it would mean owing $20 million plus at least through 2023 to Springer, Cano, Lindor and Jacob deGrom. Can you do that and retain Conforto after next year?
Do you want two outfielders — Conforto and Springer — eating up that much payroll? You can bet that whatever Springer gets, Conforto’s representative, Scott Boras, will make a case that his client deserves more. So this could come down to who do you want more long term: Springer or Conforto?
Do you just let Matz, Stroman and Syndergaard go? Acquiring Carlos Carrasco with Lindor offers some answers, since he is under control through a 2023 option. So the 2022 rotation is Jacob deGrom and Carrasco and then ...? Want to assume David Peterson is for real? Fine. So it is deGrom, Carrasco, Peterson and then …?
Is Lugo a starter? The pitching prospects closest to reaching the majors — Franklyn Kilome and Thomas Szapucki — have not convinced outside evaluators they are starters and not relievers. So the Mets will be back in the business next offseason of needing to buy one and probably two starters to feel comfortable, and that is assuming nothing bad happens with deGrom, Carrasco and Peterson.
The Mets will probably be happy to see the deals for Betances, Brach and Familia conclude, but again, reinforcements are likely going to need to be found from outside, especially because Diaz, Lugo, Miguel Castro and Robert Gsellman all can be free agents after the 2022 campaign.
So, yes, Lindor brings much to the Mets, and it is terrific that they obtained him. But he also brings questions of how to keep him and what it means for constructing the roster around him.