THUMBS-UP TO RAMS
Banged up, Goff & Co. can cover
WELL, here I am, writing from my new secret location in the Handicappers Witless Protection Program after going 2-10 vs. the spread and on Over/Unders in the first Super Wild Card Weekend (Stupor Wild Card Weekend was more like it). In this town, the streets are all one-way, and most of them lead someplace bad.
Unlike NFL teams that get hammered in a playoff game and sent home, we prognosticators still advance to the following week with a shot at redemption or a chance to be embarrassed yet again.
The key is to try to learn from the mistakes — such as acknowledging the three Saturday underdogs were all sharp plays at those prices and laying the points with the favorites anyway ... and for being so bold to say I wanted “no part of Taylor Heinicke,” only to see the Washington quarterback deliver a solid and gutsy game.
There was also some bad luck. I was on the sharp side with the Bears +10 at the Saints, and they stop Drew Brees at the goal line then go 99¹/ 2 yards and score a touchdown with no time left but lose by 12 because no extra point(s) were attempted. And, of course, when you’re already 2-8, the first play of the final game is a snap over your quarterback’s head and a touchdown for the other team.
With that, here we go with the divisional round ...
SATURDAY
Rams (+6.5) over PACKERS; Under 45.5: After my experience shunning the sharper sides last Saturday, I figure it’s best to go back to that strategy, and live and die with it. The Rams scored 30 points against the Seahawks last week even though Jared Goff and his damaged thumb had to replace the injured John Wolford. The predominance of money is on MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home and with rest against LA’s damaged goods (Aaron Donald wasn’t looking so hot at the end of the Seattle game either).
Against that backdrop, the line has moved in the other direction from Rams +7 to +6.5, which signals LA is getting the respected money. Also, Ron Torbert is the ref, and road teams have covered in 59 percent of his career games. The total has dropped a point during the week, signaling some smart money on that side. The Lambeau forecast isn’t bad (upper 20s-low 30s, 10-15 mph winds) but it could aid the defenses some. The Rams are 12-5 to the Under this season (Packers 9-7 to the Over). Packers 24, Rams 20.
Ravens (+2.5) over BILLS; Under 49.5: The Bills had a 14point lead in the second half but couldn’t cover for me vs. the Colts. Before that, they had covered eight games in a row. The Ravens have covered their last seven games. Heading into last week, my thought was that the Bills are for real and would be a real threat to beat Kansas City next week and make it to the Super Bowl. I still believe that’s possible, but the Ravens are a formidable roadblock.
Baltimore has a Super Bowl-winning coach in John Harbaugh, who has won quite a few road playoff games in his career. You could see the weight of the world fall off Lamar Jackson’s shoulders after his 48-yard touchdown run in the first half in Tennessee. The Ravens have sizable edges in the ground game on both sides of the ball, and the weather (upper 20s, some snow, persistent 23 mph winds) figures to hinder the downfield passing game. It’s a tricky total because Jackson and Josh Allen will still generate big plays, but the weather does figure to matter.
Ravens 24, Bills 23.
SUNDAY Browns (+10) over CHIEFS; Over 57.5
:The Browns did have some luck on the first-play touchdown vs. the Steelers, but that was not the only reason they jumped out to a 28-0 lead. And that was without coach Kevin Stefanski, who returns for this one. This is a team that can put up a lot of points, but also one that seems to have a street-fighter mentality. They’re not the Chiefs by a long shot, but Kansas City does enter with an ATS record of 1-6-1 in its past eight games. In addition, the ref is Clay Martin, and road teams have covered in 70 percent of his career games (thanks to VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum for the referee trends). The total on this game has skyrocketed three points since it was posted. Though we’re not getting the best number, the Over is still the side with the sharper players. Chiefs 35, Browns 27. Buccaneers (+3) over SAINTS; Over 51.5: It figured we’d get Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees in the playoffs, and here it is. The teams already have met twice this year, with the Saints winning the opener, 34-23, at home, then destroying the Bucs 38-3 in Tampa on Nov. 8. But if it were that easy to predict a third straight New Orleans breeze, the line would not have opened at a modest 3.5 then quickly bet down to 3 by sharps who grabbed “the hook.”
Tampa Bay allowed a backdoor cover to Washington’s Taylor Heinicke, but you can’t lose sight of the fact the Buccaneers scored 31 points and rushed for 146 yards against a very tough defense. Brady has plenty of firepower to counter the Saints attack — with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate in the passing game and Leonard Fournette (and possibly Ronald Jones II) on the ground.
Last week I mentioned that dome playoff games have gone over the total around 65 percent of the time the past decade, per VSiN. That didn’t help when the Bears showed up on Sunday with an amped defense and clueless offense and the game stayed way under. But this matchup figures to be go-go-go with both teams 10-7 to the Over this season. Saints 30, Buccaneers 28. LAST WEEK: 0-6 vs. spread, 2-4 Over/ Under.