Usman & Gastelum are life of the parlay
The UFC welterweight division has featured many dominant title runs, each lasting several years. What began with Pat Miletich was eventually handed to Matt Hughes. Then came the Georges St-Pierre era, the longest run of all. More recently, Tyron Woodley flirted with the status of welterweight GOAT. Transitional champs were sprinkled through the lineage, but those champions managed to keep their belts for years on end.
As Kamaru Usman enters Saturday night’s main event of UFC 258 against Gilbert Burns in Las Vegas — it’s Usman’s third title defense, and he already owns wins over most of the top 10 in the division — he could be on the verge of cementing his status on the welterweight equivalent of Mount Rushmore.
Burns is the obvious top contender, having recently bested former champion Woodley. But if Burns fails to upset the current king, the division will have to reach deep into its ranks to identify a new threat to Usman. That would make for interesting mid-rank matchmaking, but it also would mean the current champ is likely to maintain his perch for a long time.
When evaluating a dominant champ against a new contender, it’s important to look for any clear imbalances favoring the challenger. Yet in this case, at least numerically, Usman has almost all the advantages, and across all positions of the cage. Furthermore, he earned those metrics against the elite of the division, while Burns only recently rose to face top talent.
Usman will have the more technical striking and should control the cage better while standing. Assuming Usman’s 100 percent takedown defense holds, Burns will have an uphill struggle to get the fight into a spot where his submission game has a chance.
Usman is undefeated in the UFC and has closed as a clear betting favorite in all but one fight in his career, which was his first title shot against Woodley. He also has taken top talent into deep water by hitting the fifth round in each of his past five fights. That endurance, persistence and reliability give additional confidence in taking the favorite.
The pick is Usman (-275). He makes for a good parlay leg.
Kelvin Gastelum -225 vs. Ian Heinisch +190 (welterweights)
Gastelum has always been undersized in his bouts, so it’s surprising to see him get a matchup with an opponent of similar range. Despite the mixed record and current losing streak, Gastelum’s strength of schedule is among the best in the division.
Gastelum’s clean boxing paired with competent wrestling give him a chance in every matchup. He’s willing to wade forward and initiate exchanges, even against the most dangerous strikers, though he normally has to do so with a severe range disadvantage. If he works his usual offensive game, his power hand could find a target more often than normal. We’re banking on Gastelum, 29, to be quicker and to be able to keep the fight in the position he prefers.
Despite his youth, Gastelum is one of the most experienced veterans in the game. You’d have to go back to 2014 to find an opponent unworthy of a main event. His record since may be mixed, but this bout should feel very different in terms of the caliber of opponent. Ian Heinisch is taking a big step up, and even if he eventually secures a high rank in the division, this first highlevel matchup doesn’t work in his favor.
The pick is Gastelum. Paired with Usman, a two-leg parlay pays nearly even money.
Reed Kuhn handicaps MMA for VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.