Killer B's to attack
LAS VEGAS — The NCAA Tournament is back, and how could you not be thrilled after we were all deprived of it last year?
We’ve had a lot of success with underdogs over the years. There’s a downside to all those winning ’dogs, however, as oddsmakers continue to depress the lines to make it harder and harder to find ATS winners unless you can find outright upsets.
Let’s get right to my best bets in the first round, to be held on Friday and Saturday. These are all underdogs I’m expecting to win outright and also am using in most of my brackets.
FRIDAY Virginia Tech vs. Florida
This is one of those games in which I wish both teams were matched up against other teams as I could see myself fading both of them, especially against underrated teams from smaller conferences. Instead, we get a 7-10 matchup between teams from the ACC and SEC. Florida has failed to cover the spread in four straight games, while Virginia Tech is 1-3 ATS in its past four, so that makes the Hokies the lesser of two evils.
I’m siding with the Hokies because they’re more potent from 3-point range and also have the excuse that their season has had more COVID-19 interruptions. The move to Indiana for the tournament could work in their favor.
Pick: Virginia Tech, +1.
Georgia Tech vs. Loyola-Chicago
Loyola-Chicago is back in the NCAA Tournament, so cue up the features on Sister Jean. You all remember the Ramblers’ run to the 2018 Final Four, with the biggest media star Sister Jean, the team chaplain. Well, she’s now 101 years young and has been cleared to travel to Indianapolis to cheer on her team.
As for the players, this is an intriguing matchup. Loyola is ranked No. 17 in the AP poll and No. 16 in the Coaches Poll, so a lot of people think the Ramblers should have been a No. 4 or 5 seed, but instead the Missouri Valley Conference champs are just a No. 8. So public sentiment is riding on Loyola-Chicago.
I’m not so sure, however, that the right team is favored. Georgia Tech has been playing just as well lately and won the ACC Tournament title. Granted, the ACC is down this season, but the Yellow Jackets are a solid team, led by ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright (has there ever been an ACC POY receiving less hype?), and they aren’t getting the respect they deserve. I’ll take the generous points, and I’m also looking at the money line, which was up to +200 as of Thursday.
Pick: Georgia Tech, +6.
SATURDAY St. Bonaventure vs. LSU
As expected with a matchup of
No. 8 vs. No. 9, this one is close to a pick ’em. That almost kept me away because the number is so short. Because I’m going with the Bonnies in most of my brackets, however, I’m counting on the outright upset, so it’s also a bet for me.
There’s no denying that LSU is the more talented team. The Tigers are capable of matching up well with Michigan — if they were to meet in the second round — and making a deep run in the East Region, but St. Bonaventure is no slouch and is just as capable. The Bonnies will be expected to slow the game down to limit the Tigers with their defense that allowed just 60.4 points per game, No. 5 in the country. They also know how to fill it up from long range, led by Dominick Welch, who is hitting 40 percent from 3-point range. Defense and 3-point shooting is usually the recipe for success for a mid-major.
Pick: St. Bonaventure +1.5.
Ohio vs. Virginia
This is probably my favorite outright upset in the first round, though I’m a little afraid of it being a “public ’dog.” Virginia had to back out of the ACC Tournament last week, and I can’t imagine all the uncertainty over the team’s testing and late arrival in Indiana will help in its preparations for this game.
Ohio, coming off the MAC championship, is peaking at the right time. The Bobcats don’t have a superstar, but all five starters average double digits and they rank No. 29 in offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. They scored at least 84 points in each of their three conference tournament games. I wouldn’t expect them to reach that level against Virginia, which plays at the slowest pace in the country, but a relatively lowscoring game certainly works in favor of the underdog covering the number. This line has been getting bet down, but I’d take the Bobcats at +6 or better.
Pick: Ohio +7.5.
VCU vs. Oregon
Just like when Shaka Smart roamed the sidelines for VCU, the Rams are led by a defense, which is ranked No. 12 at KenPom. VCU isn’t totally devoid on offense as Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland leads the way with 19.9 points per game. But VCU’s chance at the upset (or at least to cover for our purposes) comes down to its ability to take away either Chris Duarte or Eugene Omoruyi and defend the 3-pointers. Pick: VCU +5. Dave Tuley writes for VSiN.com. VSiN programming can be heard on iHeartRadio platforms.
Bonnies & Bobcats head first-round best-brt list