Rahm can roll to Match title
The majority of the world’s top 64 players will be in Austin, Texas, beginning Wednesday for the PGA Tour’s own version of March Madness. Here are some betting suggestions for the WGCDell Match Play Championships:
Jon Rahm (14/1): Finished runner-up in his debut for this event in 2017, losing 1-up in the final to Dustin Johnson. Of all the top seeds, Rahm looks to have the easiest draw to go deep in this bracket. His group consists of Sebastian Munoz, who is making his event debut, Ryan Palmer, who struggled being paired with Rahm in the final group last summer at the Memorial Tournament, and Shane Lowry, who has never advanced out of pool play here.
In the Round of 16, Daniel Berger would be the projected seed to meet Rahm. However, Berger has a poor record in this event and just had to withdraw last week from the Honda Classic, where he was the tournament favorite, with a rib injury. If Berger fails to get out of his group, either Harris English, Brendon Todd, or Erik van Rooyen await, and Rahm would be a massive favorite over all three. If the top seeds hold form, either Xander Schauffele or Rory McIlroy could await in the quarterfinals and both are always formidable but also are a bit out of form at the moment.
Rahm’s ball striking has been in its usual top shape thus far this season. The putter needs to come along a little bit, but when it does, Rahm will be back in the winner’s circle sooner rather than later.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (33/1): Opens with a coin-flip match against Jordan Spieth on Wednesday. The winner is likely to advance from group play over event debutants Matthew Wolff and Corey Conners. Wolff is injured currently and Conners often misses short putts in pressure situations.
Tommy Fleetwood (50/1): While Bryson DeChambeau looms in group play for Fleetwood, there are also seven of 16 players in this quarter making their respective event debuts. Fleetwood is still trying to find form, but he is historically an excellent putter on Bermudagrass greens.
Russell Henley (66/1): Henley is in terrific recent form, but is currently sitting No. 55 in the OWGR and needs to get into the top 50 to qualify for the Masters. In fact, he has not yet qualified for any of the 2021 major championships.
However, he was in this situation back in 2017 and rose to the pressure by winning the Houston Open to qualify for The Masters. The draw is not easy with Sungjae Im in his group and then a potential meeting with No. 1 Dustin Johnson in the Round of 16, but his putting and ball striking have been stellar of late so it is not impossible for him to make a run here.
Unlike stroke-play events, this event also provides opportunities to take futures/props for players to advance out of their groups. Here are a few plays for players to advance into the Round of 16:
Gr. 2: Louis Oosthuizen +275 over Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner, and Matt Kuchar.
Gr. 4: Max Homa +333 over Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, and J.T. Poston.
Gr. 11: Cameron Smith 5/2 over Rory McIlroy, Lanto Griffin, Ian Poulter.
Gr. 12: Jason Kokrak 5/2 over Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Dylan Frittelli.
Gr. 16: Russell Henley +275 over Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman, Victor Perez.
Wes Reynolds handicaps golf for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.
LAS VEGAS — Against long odds, Oregon State senior guard Ethan Thompson might be the most unlikely star of this NCAA Tournament. Thompson is a talented player to be sure, but his team faced a nearly hopeless predicament two weeks ago.
The Beavers finished the regular season in sixth place in the Pac-12, which received a minuscule amount of media hype this season yet has emerged from a five-day whirlwind as the most impressive conference in college basketball.
“I don’t know how this all came together for this Oregon State team all of a sudden,” The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said.
With two minutes remaining in the first half of their Pac-12 Tournament opener on March 11, the Beavers trailed UCLA by 16 points. Oregon State rallied to beat the Bruins in overtime as Thompson scored all 18 of his points after halftime.
The Beavers, needing to win three games in three days just to get into the NCAA field, went on to upset Oregon and Colorado to claim the conference tournament title in Las Vegas. As the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, Oregon State stunned fifth-seeded Tennessee and fourth-seeded Oklahoma State to reach the Sweet 16.
Thompson scored 26 points Sunday to outduel freshman phenom Cade Cunningham in the Beavers’ 80-70 victory over the Cowboys. The game was played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the 1986 movie “Hoosiers” featuring the small-town Hickory Huskers’ underdog story culminated. Yes, all of this actually just happened.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the odds against Oregon State winning five consecutive games in elimination settings — with less than a 30 percent win probability in each game — were approximately 2,800/1.
Oregon State and three other doubledigit seeds — Oral Roberts, Syracuse and UCLA — advanced past the second round. The Beavers and Bruins join Oregon and USC to give the Pac-12 four teams in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2001. Aside from Bill Walton, no one could see this coming.
“Some surprise teams in there make it more interesting,” Marshall said. “This has been absolutely nuts.”
Because of the betting public’s tendency to play favorites, upsets mean positive results for bookmakers. Underdogs went 24-15 against the spread with 16 outright upsets in the Friday, Saturday and Sunday games.
The NCAA Tournament was canceled last year because of the coronavirus pandemic, but the wagering handle this March is making up for lost time.
“People were yearning for this tournament to be back,” Draft-Kings sportsbook director John Avello said. “I thought the handle would be great, and it is off the hook. Our win percentage has been good too.”
The ’dog trend finally stopped Monday. After Oregon upset Iowa in the day’s first game, favorites finished on a 7-0 ATS roll. Underdogs still hold a 25-22 lead in the ATS standings.
“The books have no complaints,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It’s a ton of business. The numbers are staggering. I’m just talking about Nevada, but the numbers are strong throughout all of the states.”
The Big Ten’s performance has been surprisingly weak. The conference sent nine teams to the tournament and only Michigan, the No. 1 seed in the East, has survived. Illinois, the top seed in the Midwest, was upset Sunday by No. 8 Loyola Chicago.
Ohio State, a No. 2 seed, opened as a 17point favorite over Oral Roberts, who shocked the Buckeyes in the first round before upsetting Florida in the second round. The 15th-seeded Golden Eagles of the Summit League are led by sophomore guard Max Abmas, the nation’s leading scorer who has 55 points in two tournament games.
Amid the bracket-busting hysteria, top seeds Gonzaga and Baylor have advanced with ease. BetMGM opened the Zags as 13.5-point favorites against Creighton in the regional semifinals.
The Bears, the last team standing from seven Big 12 teams in the field, are laying 6.5 points against Villanova.
BetMGM lists Gonzaga as the NCAA championship favorite at 3/2 odds, followed by Baylor (9/2), Michigan (9/1) and Houston (9/1). The Cougars are 6-point favorites against Syracuse in the next round, with the Orange getting 5/1 odds to win the Midwest Region and 30/1 odds to win it all.
Pac-12 teams have posted a 9-1 record in the tournament, and one team from the league is guaranteed to reach the Elite Eight with Oregon facing USC in the next round. The Trojans opened as 1-point favorites against the Ducks.
“I really think the Loyola-Oregon State winner is going to get to the Final Four,” Marshall said.
The Ramblers are 6.5-point favorites against the Beavers, who overcame long odds to get to this point and now must fend off Loyola and its spiritual leader, Sister Jean.
Matt Youmans is senior editor of VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.