FINAL 4SIGHT
Know trends before rolling with wagers
THE NCAA Tournament wraps up with the Final Four on Saturday and the championship game Monday. It’s a unique field, with a variety of conferences, seeds, expected teams and surprises.
Certainly the biggest shocker came out of the East Region, where UCLA advanced from a First Four team to a Final Four team by winning five games, including knocking off the top two teams in the region. The other three teams are not completely unexpected, and, from a season-long power-rating perspective, are deserving of a shot at a title.
The point spreads set up for the semifinals don’t exactly ooze drama, with Gonzaga and Baylor expected to meet Monday night in the final. But as we’ve seen over the past two weeks, anything can happen.
Here are some historical trends from the betting results of the semifinal and championship rounds at the NCAA Tournament, with notes on how they apply to this weekend’s games.
SEMIFINALS
In the Final Four, outright winners own a record of 31-5-2 ATS (86.1 percent) since 2001, though most recently, Virginia did beat Auburn in 2019 without covering.
Gonzaga and Baylor are sizable favorites. This trend indicates that if both win, both are likely to cover. Also, any ATS win by UCLA or Houston would likely be accompanied by an outright upset.
Final Four No. 1 seeds are 14-5 SU and 10-8-1 ATS (55.6 percent) since ’01 when not matched against another No. 1 seed.
Gonzaga and Baylor will be taking on non-No. 1 seeds Saturday.
Final Four favorites of five points or more are on a solid surge of 16-3 SU and 11-7-1 ATS (61.1 percent) over the past 22 years.
As of now, Gonzaga is a hefty 14-point favorite over UCLA. Baylor was teetering on the edge of qualifying for this trend as a five-point favorite over Houston.
The past five non-power-conference teams to reach the Final Four and face a power-conference team have gone 3-2 SU and ATS.
Though a 3-2 record isn’t exactly scintillating, it stands as proof that nonpower-conference teams such as Gonzaga and Houston are competitive once they reach this stage.
On totals, the past seven Final Four games that had posted numbers of 130 or less went Under, producing just 112.2 combined ppg on average. In all other games, totals are 19-14-2 Over (57.5 percent) in the Final Four since ’99.
Over the total would be the lean on both games this weekend, according to this angle.
The two semifinal games of 2019 went Under the total, slowing a string of 7-2-1 Over in the previous five years.
Again, Over is the lean, and in both games, the favored team is well known for its offensive efficiency and high pace.
TITLE GAMES
Championship game favorites of three points or more are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6 percent) run, while those favored by 2.5 or fewer are just 4-4 SU and ATS since ’98.
In all four projected matchups for the 2021 title game, there will be a favorite of three points or more. Good chance the better team wins and covers Monday night.
Only once in the past 20 years did the championship-winning team not cover the spread. That was Duke against Butler in 2010.
Don’t try to sneak in an underdog cover if you don’t think they can win outright.
In the past 12 championship games matching non-equal seeds, the better seed is on an 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS (71.4 percent) run.
Anything but a BaylorGonzaga matchup will match non-equal seeds.
Over the past 21 years, excluding the improbable 2014 matchup of No. 7 vs. No. 8, teams seeded No. 3 or worse are just 2-8 SU
and 3-7 ATS.
Doesn’t bode well for UCLA sneaking out of Indianapolis with a title in tow.
CONFERENCE TRENDS
American Athletic (Houston)
American Athletic teams are 11-2 Under the total (84.6 percent) in their past 13 tourney games as underdogs. Big 12 (Baylor) Since 2002, Big 12 teams are just 1-4 SU and ATS (20 percent) when favored in the Final Four. Four of those games went Over the total. Pac-12 (UCLA)
Pac-12 teams have performed well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, going 34-16 ATS (68 percent) since 2011. Doubledigit-seeded Pac-12 teams have been hard to knock out. They are 26-18 SU and 32-12 ATS (72.7 percent) since ’09, including 9-0 ATS in 2021. West Coast (Gonzaga) With a 3-0 SU and ATS run in 2021, West Coast Conference teams are now 14-0 SU but 5-9 ATS (35.7 percent) as double-digit favorites in the NCAA tourney since ’99.
Steve Makinen is editor of Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.