Ober? Oh boy!
Rookie hurler can deliver late boost
EVERY decision we make in life comes with risk, whether it’s walking across a busy street or getting on an airplane and flying to another country.
But what would happen if you never took risks? You’d never experience some huge moments in life — you know, like winning a fantasy title. Though now is not the time to stock your roster in a willy-nilly manner, a calculated risk can certainly help your cause.
Despite being an intimidating presence on the mound while standing 6-foot-9, weighing 260 pounds and pitching like a top prospect in the minors, the Twins’ Bailey Ober never received the hype that regularly goes along with his type of production. Over four seasons in the minors, he was 18-3 with a 2.41 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, 11.1 strikeouts per nine and just 1.2 walks per nine, and that includes going 8-0 with a 0.69 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 11.4 strikeouts per nine and 1.0 walk per nine over three stops in 2019.
After going 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 11.8 strikeouts per nine in four starts at Triple-A this year, the hulking righty got the call to The Show.
Outside of striking out 26.1 percent of the batters he faced before the Midsummer Classic, there wasn’t much to get excited about over his first eight starts. He was 1-1 with a 5.45 ERA, 37-11 strikeout-walk rate, a 1.36 WHIP, 3.0 walks per nine and .264 opponent average before the break.
Fantasy owners should, however, take notice of what he has done since the All-Star break.
In his first eight second-half starts, Ober is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 40-6 strikeout-walk rate and a 1.080 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .247 against him with a .697 OPS (compared to a .851 OPS in the first half). He was 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in July before going 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five August starts.
Among pitchers with a minimum of 40 innings pitched since the break, Ober ranks 15th in ERA, 18th in strand rate (82 percent) and has the sixth-lowest walks per nine (1.3). He also ranks 21st in swinging strike rate (12.6).
Ober is far from the perfect pitcher. Opponents are hitting a respectable .254 against him and have hit 15 home runs off him (though just six have come since the break). He has made just two quality starts in his 16 starts (both coming since the break), but he has allowed three earned runs or less (and walked one or none) in every outing in the second half.
Ober’s 4.43 FIP, 4.02 xFIP and 4.44 xERA all show he has gotten slightly lucky, but not to a point at which it would harm your rotation.
Back to good news about Ober, whose fastball averages 92 mph but has a max velocity of 95 mph: His next start will come Monday against Cleveland, which is hittin 237 t ( d 227 against he is also lined up to face the Royals and Blue Jays (twice) before finishing off against the Tigers, who are hitting .241 as a team. Outside of the two matchups versus Toronto’s potent offense, these are favorable matchups. That, in addition to his second-half production, makes him a viable rotation option fantasy owners should consider.
Roto Rage understands the risk involved with trusting a rookie pitcher in the final month of your quest to win the fantasy crown. But Ober, who is available in almost 90 percent of ESPN leagues, has made big strides after a lackluster start to his big league career — and they’re happening at the most important time of the season.
Take the leap because, remember, the biggest risks are the ones you never take.
jwilk@