Teaser's the way to play it with Bucs
The NFL season opens Thursday night in Tampa with the defendingchampion Buccaneers favored by eight points against the Cowboys. Two VSiN NFL experts recommend going the twoteam, six-point-teaser route and pairing the Buccaneers at just -2 with a team that plays Sunday.
Youmans: Nothing indicates the Cowboys are about to roll into Tampa to ambush the Buccaneers, who return 22 starters from their Super Bowl title team and bring in the far better defense. There will be spots to fade Tampa Bay and take inflated numbers, but this does not appear to be one of those spots.
Dallas will be without its best offensive lineman, six-time Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin, who’s a big key to the running game. That’s bad news for Ezekiel Elliott as he takes on a Buccaneers defense that ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the run (80.6 yards per game) last season. It’s asking a lot for the offense’s timing to be in sync after quarterback Dak Prescott was sidelined for most of the preseason with a shoulder injury.
I’m not into laying points with big favorites, but I will tease a strong home favorite down through key numbers, and it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Bucs play poorly enough to lose.
Youmans’ recommendation: Buccaneers -2 on a teaser with Rams -1.5 over Bears on Sunday night.
Hill: The public will be all over the Super Bowl champs as they raise their banner Thursday night. I would love nothing more than to fade the public and grab all of those points against a team that I think is generally overrated in the market. Given the state of the Cowboys, however, I simply can’t get myself to do so.
Martin and La’el Collins are unlikely to play, and it wasn’t long ago where we saw what it looked like to take on the Bucs with a compromised offensive line. The vaunted Chiefs offense could not find the end zone last February when they limped into Tampa Bay with injuries up front, and a quarterback who wasn’t completely healthy, an eerily similar scenario to what America’s Team faces in Week 1. Dak Prescott hasn’t played since last Oct. 11, as reports of a sore shoulder kept him completely out of the preseason.
The Bucs were dominant against the run last year, and were top five in both offense and defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric. All that being said, I am not in the habit of laying this kind of number, especially this early in the season, and the Cowboys certainly have the firepower to sneak in through the back door to perhaps cover this number late in the game. I will use the Bucs in a teaser with a 49ers team that is far superior to the rebuilding Lions on Sunday.
Hill’s recommendation: Buccaneers -2 on a teaser with 49ers -1.5 over Lions on Sunday.
Matt Youmans and William Hill write for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.