NO LUCK FOR CINCY ’DOGS
THE MOST interesting aspect of the most intriguing games this week is the similar contrast of each matchup, pitting consistent contenders against unproven upstarts.
The biggest ripple will be felt when No. 7 Cincinnati (3-0) travels to No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0), the only one of these matchups in which the traditional power is an underdog. It is the only game featuring two top-10 teams, yet carries the distinction of ensuring the loser won’t make the playoff, while failing to stand out enough for the winner to be assured a playoff spot with an undefeated season. That is because neither team has any other (currently) ranked teams on its schedule.
After failing to rise above sixth during last year’s unbeaten regular season, the Bearcats at least have an outside chance to be considered for the playoff, given the struggles of three-quarters of the sport’s most frequent postseason participants (Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma). Cincinnati is only the second Group of Five team in the playoff era, after Houston in 2016, to enter October in such a strong position.
It is deserved, and it is heartening, but it is also unfamiliar territory for a program that has played one legit road game since 2019. The Bearcats may be the better team, but they carry much more pressure, given a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in front of the largest crowd Cincinnati has seen in two years, facing an opponent whose helmets are a reminder of its history and has so rarely been so disrespected at home.
“Once the thing is kicked off, you can’t let all of the emotions about what was going on affect you. You can’t let it drain you,” Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said this week. “It’s a big game any time you play Notre Dame. … It’s definitely a measuring stick. Notre Dame is a top-five program, not just over the last 100 years, but over the last five.”
Cincinnati has been waiting for this game for a long time, but there is no playbook to prepare for the emotion and atmosphere. The slowly improving Fighting Irish (+2.5) know what’s coming.
Virginia (+5) over MIAMI: D’Eriq King is questionable. Brennan Armstrong is not, and leads the nation’s top-ranked passing attack against the Hurricanes, who rank 101st in passing yards allowed.
MARYLAND (+3.5) over Iowa: The Terrapins haven’t reached double digits in wins since 2003. Every promising start — 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2019— since then has ended with a thud. So, what has changed? The most unstable quarterback room in college football has stumbled into a Heisman Trophy candidate, Taulia Tagovailoa, who will be leading Maryland into the program’s biggest home game in nearly two decades.
Arkansas (+18.5) over GEORGIA: Alabama or Georgia will take home the national title. Any other result would be shocking. But while Alabama has undergone an offensive evolution in recent years, the Bulldogs are still defined by their defense. Arkansas shares the same, albeit less powerful, DNA. The Hogs will feel at home in a low-scoring grind, even if Kirby Smart still leaves with a double-digit win.
WISCONSIN (-1.5) over Michigan: Despite my desire to bet against Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz at every opportunity, the Wolverines’ run-reliant offense won’t find much success in their first road game of the year. Michigan was held scoreless and converted just two first downs in a tight win against Rutgers’ strong run defense last week. Wisconsin boasts the nation’s best run-stopping unit, allowing just 1 yard per carry.
Mississippi (+14.5) over ALABAMA: Nick Saban’s favorite former assistant put up 48 points in last year’s shootout. Now, Lane Kiffin returns to Tuscaloosa with the country’s highest-scoring offense, the Heisman front-runner (Matt Corral) and an improved defense. With an extra week to prepare, count on Kiffin’s brilliant offensive mind to have put aside some new plays for this showdown.
STANFORD (+8) over Oregon: Tanner McKee’s emergence since being named the starter makes this a strong backdoor candidate. The sophomore quarterback has nine total touchdowns and no interceptions since landing the gig and now faces the 125th-ranked pass defense in the country. The Ducks, who are 1-3 against the spread this season, are dependent on turnovers: not ideal against a team that won’t feature a player with a giveaway on the field.
Oklahoma (-10.5) over KANSAS STATE: The Wildcats would be the strong play, except starting quarterback Skylar Thompson likely will be sidelined. The Sooners are traditionally a safe play, except they’ve lost to Kansas State the past two seasons, have defeated this season’s three FBS opponents by an average of five points and haven’t yet played on the road. Unfortunately, sitting out isn’t an option (for me, at least).
RUTGERS (+15) over Ohio State: I trust Greg Schiano’s defense more than Ohio State’s. What world am I living in? A world in which the Buckeyes have covered just two of their past eight games as doubledigit favorites.
KENTUCKY (+8.5) over Florida: Kentucky is allowing just 60 yards per game on the ground and will force Emory Jones to rely on his arm more than he’d like. Put him down for a pair of interceptions.
TEXAS A&M (-7) over Mississippi State: Everyone is shedding Aggies stock after an underwhelming showing against Arkansas. So, it’s a great time to pick up some shares, with A&M riding a nine-game home winning streak and facing an opponent that scored seven offensive points in last year’s meeting.
Baylor (+3.5) over OKLAHOMA STATE: The Big 12 is up for grabs. Either team could make a run. Either team could win here. If I have to flip a coin, I have to take the points, along with the more consistent team thus far.
Indiana (+13) over PENN STATE: The Hoosiers’ No. 17 preseason ranking was clearly a tad too generous, but Penn State’s current No. 4 ranking should also raise eyebrows. The Nittany Lions’ two most impressive wins (Wisconsin, Auburn) were nail-biters against two of the shakiest quarterbacks in Power Five football, while their most recent triumph came in an unexpectedly competitive bout with Villanova. The Hoosiers won’t pull an upset, as in last year’s thriller, but the underachieving group still has the talent to keep it close.
Boston College (+15) over CLEMSON:
Will Clemson even score 16 points? In the Tigers’ only three games against FBS foes, they’ve yet to surpass that mark in regulation. Mounting injuries and Dabo Swinney’s tepid endorsement of his quarterback — “I think D.J. [Uiagalelei] is our quarterback” — have put Clemson’s bounce-back on hold until at least 2022.
LSU (-3.5) over Auburn: Standing in LSU’s way is either recently benched Bo Nix — who on the road in his career has produced more interceptions than touchdowns, a 4-6 record and five straight failures to cover as an underdog — or overexcited and overly emotional LSU transfer TJ Finley, returning to play in prime time in front of 100,000 or so fans and the program that benched him last year. Enjoy.
BEST BETS: Kentucky, Boston College,