STAND PAT WITH LAGGING MAHOMES
WEEK 7? Well that was something, wasn’t it. A disaster at every turn. It was “final season of ‘Game of Thrones’ ’’ bad. It was the Nathan Peterman of fantasy weeks.
Between byes and injuries, fantasy managers’ options were thin. Three of the top 12 quarterbacks were unavailable, plus no Russell Wilson. Nine of the top
30 wide receivers were not in action, two of the top 10 tight ends.
Of the top 25 fantasy running backs, six did not play, and that collection doesn’t even include Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, Clyde EdwardsHelaire or Chris Carson — all drafted to be starting RBs.
Combined, of the 100 players rostered most frequently at ESPN, 32 did not play in Week 7. Essentially one out of every three of the top players.
And of those remaining, of course not all of them had good weeks. One of the most flagrantly terrible games from Sunday came from the once bulletproof Patrick Mahomes.
He has been far from otherworldly this season. And his single worst fantasy performance in his career came Sunday. In 2018, he scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in a game just once. It happened five times in 2019, but two of those came after a knee injury, and one of those was his first
sub-10-point game (9) when he suffered the injury. And he went on to win a Super Bowl that season.
Last year, one game with fewer than 20 fantasy points. Back on track. This season? Well, he actually has OK fantasy numbers — a couple of 30-point games, just one under 20 entering Week 7, good enough to be QB5. But he was drafted as QB1, and the drop in total yardage, the rise in interceptions and fewer explosive plays were concerning.
Then came Sunday. He barely topped 200 yards, had one pick and one fumble and zero touchdowns. And that was against one of the league’s worst defenses.
What on earth are fantasy managers to do? Well, we don’t see the current ebbs and flows to change significantly this season. We think he is going to continue to be erratic. But erratic means you might get another game like Week 7, or you might get 400 yards and five TDs on any given week.
Trading him now is hard, considering his value will be at an all-time low. But if you can land, say, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert with a moderate upgrade elsewhere, go for it. But good luck finding such a trade partner.
The worst thing you can do is sell well below peak value. It is better to just ride it out with Mahomes. Remember, even after the horror show of Week 7, he will still be QB6 on the season. Even if he slips in coming weeks behind Josh Allen, Dak Prescott or the trade targets listed earlier, he would remain a top-12 QB.
You can do a lot worse. Don’t panic and become the Nathan Peterman of fantasy managers.