Fly, Eagles, Fly in Survivor 12
Being alive in your survivor pool in late November is a great accomplishment, but this is about the time when greed really sets in. Even though these contests get harder with each passing week, expectations grow and grow until it becomes “win or bust.”
Those who plan out the season had to have circled Week 12 as one of the most difficult. There just aren’t a lot of obvious considerations, and this is one of the weeks where the league’s parity creates some major challenges.
For the purposes of this article, we are following the traditional survivor rules, so one pick per week. I know that there are some variations out there, including the Circa Survivor here in Vegas, with a rule about picking a Thursday game. I’m not going to limit myself to that, but hopefully you’ve planned accordingly for it if you are in one of those situations.
The Browns narrowly beat the Lions last week, but it was a win all the same. The Titans lost as double-digit favorites, continuing that recent theme, so hopefully you opted for the Browns over the Titans if you had the choice. I lost in Week 10 with the Buccaneers, so I’m 10-1 on the season.
The teams I considered for Week 12 were the Cowboys, who were a 7.5-point favorite at home against the Raiders on Thanksgiving; the Patriots, who are -6.5 at home against the Titans; and the Ravens, who are shorter favorites at -4 at home against the Browns.
Bill Belichick and the Patriots have had extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday night game. He may not have Tom Brady anymore, but rookie quarterback Mac Jones is playing very well and Belichick is still the GOAT.
The Ravens’ lean is more a fade of Cleveland and a tumultuous situation. Baker Mayfield is hurt and playing very badly. Apparently a healthy Case Keenum would somehow be worse.
But my recommendation is the Eagles, who are 3.5-point favorites at MetLife Stadium against the Giants.
The Eagles are not a perfect team by any means, but Nick Sirianni is doing some serious work on the offensive side. We’ve seen a lot of love in the betting markets for Philadelphia recently, based on their advanced offensive metrics. The Eagles are a top-10 offense by DVOA and a top-five rushing offense. The Giants have one of the league’s worst run defenses. This is a major mismatch in the trenches.
Taking a road favorite in a divisional game is a scary proposition, but most of the options this week are scary. The Eagles are playing safe on offense, with only nine turnovers in 11 games. Jalen Hurts is really growing into this offense. The Giants don’t really have the offense to exploit Philadelphia’s defensive weaknesses. The Eagles’ offense has a major matchup advantage in this game.
Road favorites are trending in the right direction. The Giants were a misleading winner against the Raiders before the bye, getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play and were pretty bad against the Bucs. Freddie Kitchens will now be calling plays, as Jason Garrett was fired on Tuesday. Philadelphia’s recent improvements appear legit and the stats back it up. Plus, the Eagles are just in a much better mindset for this game.