ISLE OF FOSTER MOREAU
Approach fill-in Raiders tight end with caution
SUDDENLY, the Raiders tight end paradise is a one-man island. And it isn’t ruled by draft day titan Darren Waller. The one left standing is Foster Moreau.
Waller is listed as “doubtful” after a knee injury in Week 12 against the Cowboys and was described by interim coach Rich Bisaccia earlier this week as “week-to-week,” which is never a good sign the first week of an injury of such a classification. The only reasonable meaning is, “not this week, maybe next week.” If it were possible this week, he could be described as “day-to-day — translation: “not today, but maybe tomorrow.”
That puts Moreau on our radar. We say he is the last tight end standing on the Raiders roster because, well, he essentially is. The only other tight end to record a stat this season is Derek Carrier, who caught two passes in Week 2 and was placed on injured reserve in Week 4.
The combination of Matt Bushman and Nick Bowers have taken a total of 18 offensive snaps all season. Those aren’t players who have appear prepped or ready for a significant role in the offense.
So get prepared for more Moreau. But how much more Moreau? Many are flocking to him to be their fantasy tight end savior after losing a high draft pick. But take into account Waller’s disappointing production. Waller hasn’t been bad, just not nearly as good as expected.
He was drafted as the clearand-away TE2. He currently is tied for fourth in PPR points per game — with Dawson Knox, who routinely went undrafted — and more than two full points a week behind the No. 3, Rob Gronkowski.
Waller has averaged 8.4 targets per game. Moreau has some catching up to, averaging just 1.9. Their catch rate is similar (63 percent), but Waller has an edge in yards per reception and per target. One weird nugget is Moreau has three touchdowns to Waller’s two this year.
So we don’t expect Moreau’s scoring to increase, but we do expect to see a spike in catches and yards. With new 8.4 targets to spread around let us use a 50 percent benchmark as a loose guide. Let’s say 50 percent of would-be Waller targets go to Moreau, which would be 4.2. Yet, Moreau already is getting 1.9 of those, so we would expect just an additional 2.3. So roughly, we double his expected fantasy output.
Doubling would bump Moreau up from 5.4 per game to 10.8. That’s not bad. That’s Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz territory. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to start Moreau over those options. We know what we have in Pitts, Ertz, Mike Gesicki. Moreau is still a bit of a mystery.
If our options are a bit scarier — like Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin, essentially guys you can’t really rely on anyway. — then we become willing to explore that Isle of Moreau.