Don't be fooled by early hoops gold

SCARLET BETTOR: Rutgers has had some tough losses early in its season, including a Friday-night drubbing at the hands of Illinois to open its Big Ten season, but it has the experience to bounce back when games start to matter.

Conference play is drawing near and interest in college hoops will pick up during football’s bowl season. That means it is a good time to take stock of some of these teams.

One thing you’ll want to start paying attention to as December goes along is strength of schedule. Some teams have been tested a lot more than others, particularly in the Group of 5.

Bellarmine, for example, has already played Purdue, Murray State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, UCLA and West Virginia. The Knights’ next three games are against lower-division teams.

On the flip side, Texas Tech has played basically nobody of consequence, and lost when finally challenged, and will play Gonzaga on Dec. 18.

Be sure to notice if a team is struggling against a weak schedule. Look at a team like UTSA, which has the 356thranked schedule per Ken Pom and is still just 4-3. Other teams that have struggled despite bad schedules: Denver, FAU and Youngstown State.

Let’s look at some teams to follow and teams to fade.

Teams to Fade

Colorado State: Niko Medved’s team is off to an outstanding 9-0 start, but I have some major concerns about the offense. For starters, the Rams are third in midrange shooting percentage, and don’t take nearly enough close 2s which is likely an unsustainable offensive strategy. They don’t force turnovers. They’re outshooting opponents by nearly 17 percent at the free-throw line. The quality of competition will step up and I could see some ATS losses in a stretch that includes Saint Mary’s, Mississippi State, Tulsa and Alabama.

Akron: The Zips appear to be quite bad. The close loss to Ohio State in the opener created a bit of an expectation that Akron has little chance of living up to this season. The Zips have doubledigit losses to Fordham and Appalachian State already to go along with two wins over lower-division schools and a win over Evansville.

The Zips will be tasked with some big favorite roles in upcoming games, but this doesn’t look like an efficient offensive team at all. The Zips have also struggled badly to force turnovers against Division I teams.

Teams to Back

Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights had lost three in a row by a total of seven points at one point, and had an inexcusable loss to Lafayette. Rutgers has had a lot of awful shooting nights to this point.

Nevertheless, Rutgers doesn’t rely on the 3 a lot, shooting one just 30.5 percent of the time, but it hasn’t had the efficiency on 2-point shots either. The Scarlet Knights are taking great care of the basketball, albeit against a weak schedule, and should probably be faring a lot better. This is an experienced team that should get it going soon.

Brown: The Bears have been feisty in losses to North Carolina and Colorado and look like a pretty decent team as Ivy League schools go. The Bears have been a solid defensive team against just about everybody except UNC and Creighton, which is to be expected. Some bad luck at the rim has hurt Brown, but its defense should be good enough to win some games when that regresses in a positive way.

Adam Burke handicaps college hoops for VSiN.com