Opt-outs, defections, changing bowl lines
VSiN’s college football expert takes a look at how player opt-outs and coaching changes are affecting the lines in a handful of upcoming bowl games.
Western Michigan vs Nevada (Dec. 27): This is the Quick Lane Bowl, and it will be played at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. Western Michigan (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) finished the season winning two of its last three games, most recently beating Northern Illinois 42-21, easily covering as 7-point road favorites. On the flip side, Nevada (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost two of its last three games, though it crushed Colorado State 52-10 in the regular-season finale, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Nevada listed as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite. We’ve seen big money hit Western Michigan, flipping the Broncos to a 4.5-point favorite. This was due to Nevada starting QB Carson Strong sitting out this game and declaring for the NFL draft. Nevada will also be missing its head coach, Jay Norvell, who is leaving to coach Colorado State.
Iowa State vs Clemson (Dec. 29):
This is the Cheez-It Bowl, and it will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Iowa State (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) went just 2-3 down the stretch but finished the regular season with a 48-14 win over TCU, easily covering as a 15.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, Clemson (9-3 SU, 4-8 ATS) is ranked 19th and has won five straight games. The Tigers just shut out South Carolina, 30-0, covering as 11.5-point road favorites. This line opened at either a pick ’em or Clemson listed as a 1-point favorite. The public is all over Clemson as a ranked team with a better record, yet we’ve seen this line flip to Iowa State -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cyclones. Clemson will be down several coaches in this case, as its defensive coordinator and playcaller Brent Venables left for Oklahoma, and offensive coordinator Tony Elliott left for Virginia.
Pittsburgh vs Michigan State (Dec. 30): This is the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, and it will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) has won five straight games and just beat Wake Forest 45-21 in the ACC Championship game, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) started 8-0 but went just 2-2 down the stretch, most recently beating Penn State 30-27 but failing to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 4-point neutral-site favorite. Respected money has poured in on Michigan State, flipping the Spartans to a 1.5-point favorite. This line move may indicate Pitt star QB Kenny Pickett will sit out for the NFL draft, which is speculated but not yet official. Pitt will also miss offensive coordinator and playcaller Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. We’ve also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 63 to 60.