Lancers won’t lay the ’wood but have enough to cover vs. Vols
WHICH do you think will take longer: 1) Memorizing the truTV channel number, or, 2) forgetting its existence once the tournament games leave the station?
Longwood (+17.5) over Tennessee: The Lancers don’t have the firepower to pull off the massive upset, but their strong rebounding and balanced offense — featuring the fifth-best collection of 3-point shooters in the nation (38.6 percent) — will prevent embarrassment. Coming off an SEC Tournament title run, the Vols will enter overconfident and hungover. Rick Barnes’ teams historically underperform in March — the coach has failed to cover in his past five NCAA Tournament games — and Tennessee recently struggled as a massive favorite, failing to maintain focus in a single-digit win over 6-26 Georgia.
Gonzaga (-23.5) over Georgia State: At their best, the Bulldogs are still the best team in the nation. And as a top seed in the previous two NCAA Tournaments, Mark Few’s team have reminded the field that it deserves the respect of a power conference champion, winning by a total of 81 points. Despite playing in the Big South, Georgia State ranks 342nd in the nation in 3-point defense, and the Panthers’ typically terrific interior defense has no hope for success against the unfamiliar length and skill of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren.
Boise State (+2.5) over Memphis: Penny Hardaway’s Tigers can’t run against a team that crawls. Though Memphis has momentum entering the tournament, Boise State’s physical and experienced defense is built to prevent teams from stringing successful possessions together. A talented but undisciplined group like Memphis — which commits more turnovers than all but three teams in the nation — is even more likely to experience frustration. The Broncos have covered seven of their past eight games against the spread as an underdog.
Saint Mary’s (-2.5) over Indiana: Don’t be fooled by the brand name. Wyoming should have already sent the Hoosiers home. Though Trayce Jackson-Davis was brilliant in the First Four, Indiana wouldn’t have advanced if the Cowboys didn’t commit an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers and freshman Jor
dan Geronimo didn’t nearly quadruple his scoring average. Indiana enjoys a rock fight, but Saint Mary’s does it better than almost any other team. In its recent win over Gonzaga, it held the best offense in the country to 58 points, while limiting leading-scorers Timme and Holmgren to six points each. When the Gaels force anyone but Jackson-Davis to beat them, Indiana won’t have an answer.
Vermont (+5.5) over Arkansas: I hate how popular the Catamounts have become as an upset pick, but it’s with good reason. The America East champs have lost once since Dec. 7. The senior-heavy team is led by stars with high ceilings (Ryan Davis, Ben Shungu), but also features the balance to allow any player to shine on any night. Vermont is the nation’s third-best shooting team, the best defensive rebounding team in the country, the 10th-best at protecting the ball and the 17thbest at defending without fouling, negating much of Arkansas’ strengths. The half-court game doesn’t suit the Hogs, and it is the game that Vermont’s slow pace and high-level shotmaking will force them to play.
This season: 12-15
2011-21 record: 292-259-9