Ways to play Jays & Rays
Two of Action Network’s MLB analysts offer their futures picks for the AL East in 2022.
Blue Jays to win AL East (+185, Caesars)
Ianniello: Despite winning 91 games last season, the Blue Jays finished in fourth place in the robust AL East. That record would have been good enough for second place in four of the other five divisions. Based on Pythagorean run differential, Toronto’s expected record last season should have been 99-63, which would have been good for second in the division and earned them the top wild-card spot.
The Blue Jays have an absolutely loaded lineup. They led the league with a .340 wOBA (weighted On Base Average) last season, and finished second with 112 wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus). They lost infielder Marcus Semien but added third baseman Matt Chapman, who should have a bounce-back year. The Jays also expect a full season of George Springer (.907 OPS in 78 games last year), and another year with young stars Bo Bichette and MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray signed with Seattle, but Toronto brought in Kevin Gausman to offset the loss. Gausman, Jose Berrios and Hyun-Jin Ryu are an elite 1-2-3. Alek Manoah is just 24 years old and his electric stuff makes him a potential future star. Their No. 5 pitcher is Yusei Kikuchi, who was just an AL All-Star last year with the Mariners. MLB.com ranked them as both the best lineup and rotation in the American League.
Off the field, the Blue Jays also have a huge advantage. After playing their home games in three different ballparks in 2021, the Jays will return to Rogers Centre full time this year. Due to strict COVID-19 protocols, unvaccinated visiting players are not able to play in Canada.
In a division with four teams within nine games of each other last season, give me the team with the most talent in the AL, that will potentially face shorthanded lineups 81 times.
Rays Under 90.5 Wins (BetMGM)
Shlain: The Rays have won at least 90 games in each of the last three full seasons. This year, I think the Rays fall back to the pack a little bit.
Tampa Bay has been leaking starting pitching for years and found ways to overcome the losses of Cy Young winner Blake Snell and World Series MVP Charlie Morton. Now, they will have to deal with the loss of ace pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who will miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Tampa Bay’s only significant offseason addition was right-handed starter Corey Kluber, who has thrown 116 2/3 innings total in the last three years. That means the Rays will depend a lot on the young rotation arms of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Patino and Shane Baz, who recently had elbow surgery to remove loose bodies.
The Rays also lost relief ace Collin McHugh (1.9 WAR) in the bullpen, third baseman Joey Wendle (3.8) and slugger Nelson Cruz (0.5) without doing anything to replace their production.
Tampa Bay seems short on paper and this number feels a few wins too high as FanGraphs is projecting the Rays to go 86-76 this year. Maybe the Rays will make a trade to improve their team, but given the current roster depth, any more injuries to key players could be devastating.
You’ll find Tampa’s win total at 89.5 at most books and I still like the under there, but BetMGM has it at 90.5, which is value too good to pass up.