NYC COV ALERT UP
Cases rise, but deaths stay low
The city on Tuesday raised its COVID-19 risk alert to “high” as cases continued to climb, but deaths and hospitalizations remained relatively low among a largely vaccinated population.
“New York City has transitioned to a high COVID alert level, meaning now is the time to double down on protecting ourselves and each other by making choices that can keep our friends, neighbors, relatives and coworkers from getting sick,” said city Health Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan.
According to colorcoded coronavirus alert level guidelines Mayor Adams instituted in March, the new “high” classification means that the city Health Department advises New Yorkers to “wear a face mask in all indoor public settings and crowded outdoor spaces,” to “limit gatherings to small numbers,” and “consider avoiding higher-risk activities” such as large, indoor get-togethers.
Tuesday’s announcement comes two weeks after health officials raised the Big Apple’s alert level from “low” to “medium.”
“As a city, we have the tools to blunt the impact of this wave, including distributing tests, masks and promoting treatments,” Vasan said. “Getting back to low risk depends on everyone doing their part.”
The city Friday reported a seven-day coronavirus positivity rate average of 9.1% — up from 6.28% recorded at the beginning of May and about 2.75% in early April.
But the city’s hospitalization level is significantly lower than the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when state data showed 11,277 people were hospitalized in the five boroughs April 15 that year compared to 715 on May 15 this year.
And while hospitalizations are slightly up compared to this point in 2021, when 670 COVID patients were in Big Apple hospitals, according to state figures, at the end of last week, the city Health Department reported a seven-day COVID-19 death average of four — down from five recorded May 1.
In addition, many of those being reported as positive in hospitals were admitted for other reasons.
Statewide, of 2,497 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and are currently hospitalized, only 47.5% or 1,185 patients have COVID complications or illness, data shows.
More than 52%, or 1,312, who tested positive for COVID were admitted for other reasons, according to state Department of Health figures.
“We’re not overwhelmed,” the mayor said. “The number of cases in our hospitals are small. The number of deaths are small.”
How long will it take for New York’s leaders to catch up with evolving COVID reality? The state is spending taxpayer cash to distribute 16.5 million tests, which at this point are utterly pointless as any sort of population-wide effort to limit the spread.
Testing makes sense in limited circumstances, e.g. as a condition of visiting a nursing home full of higher-risk seniors. But more generally, by the time someone tests positive, they’ve most likely interacted with others; slightly broader testing (all a few million extra tests allows) won’t limit the spread.
Yes, statewide hospitalizations with COVID are up from their March 31 low of 817 to 2,497 on Sunday, but roughly half (or a bit more) of those are people hospitalized for something else who simply test positive. And deaths with COVID hit 30 that day, in a state of over 19 million.
If you have symptoms, stay home; the rest of the household should get tested; that’s about it. The crisis is over.
That’s clearly true even in the city, though health czar Dr. Ashwin Vasan put Gotham on “high COVID alert” Tuesday, urging everyone (especially the most vulnerable) to mask up indoors, etc.
Huh? Per his own Health Department’s tracking site, New York City saw 3,674 “confirmed and probable” cases on Saturday, down from a clear peak of 4,240 four days before.
The seven-day average of new COVID hospitalizations was 61, up from Friday’s 58 but down from a peak of 94 on May 5 (and, again, half of those are just people testing positive after hitting the hospital for another reason).
The city’s moving average of “confirmed and probable” coronavirus deaths has been hovering in a flatline range of four to seven a day for weeks. And the vast majority of those are older, have multiple comorbidities and/or are unvaccinated. The now locally dominant BA.2.12.1 strain of Omicron is proving more infectious but (plainly) even less deadly (both of which are how viruses evolve).
Mayor Adams is dutifully masking up himself but is sensible enough to hold off on mandating anything. We hope that’s a sign that he’s getting closer to being done with Vasan’s alarmism: These ridiculous, baseless alerts do nothing but spread needless fear.