GOP ballot boost

More Republicans than Dems at polls

Republican primary voters showed up in droves to take part in Tuesday’s contests, a good early sign for GOP hopes to regain the House and Senate this fall.

As of midday Wednesday, Republican voters made up 54.9% of the turnout in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, according to data compiled by JMC Analytics and Polling.

That figure jumps to 60.9% of turnout when all 10 states that have held primaries so far this year are included.

“In every state where I’ve been measuring turnout changes relative to previous midterms, I’m seeing a clear advantage on the Republican side,” JMC founder John Couvillon told The Post, adding that the picture was the exact opposite in 2018, when Democrats took control of the House with a net gain of 41 seats.

Moving right

While Couvillon emphasized that 10 primary elections are “not super representative” and noted that while there are still 174 days before general-election voters go to the polls on Nov. 8, the current data suggest “states that are swinging and are Republican are going to move far to the right.”

So far in 2022, overall voter turnout is up 13% from 2018, JMC has found. That number is driven by an approximate 30% increase in Republican voter turnout, while Democratic turnout is down 6%.

Of the 10 states that have held primaries, the only one where Republican voter turnout has dropped from 2018 is Oregon, where JMC reported a 23% decrease. Democratic voter turnout increased by 12% in North Carolina and 15% in Pennsylvania but was dwarfed by Republican increases of 44% and 32%, respectively.

Democratic turnout also dropped 29% from four years ago in the former battleground state of Ohio.

For months, the GOP has predicted a so-called “red wave” in the 2022 midterms, taking advantage of an unpopular president, decades-high inflation, record-setting gas prices and spikes in violent crime and illegal immigration. Perhaps sensing an uphill battle, 32 House Democrats have opted not to contest their seats again this fall.

Other Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have warned the party could lose its majority absent drastic action.

“I think we’re going to be in real trouble if we don’t get up and deliver. Then I believe the Democrats are going to lose,” she said last month.

Said Couvillon, “What I saw last November, if a jurisdiction voted about, say 55 or 56% for [President] Biden, that’s kind of a firewall in terms of a Democrat can feel safe. If it’s in that 55-56%-orless category, that’s where the Democrats have to worry about.”

In Georgia, the Peach State has seen a record turnout for early voting with a 156% increase from 2020 — despite being criticized by Democrats for passing an election-security law.

In addition to Georgia, both Democrats and Republicans will head to the polls in Alabama and Arkansas on May 24.