Hurricane alert: Take big, early line at A&M
With a number of Power Five win totals being released across the market, the next step in college football preseason activity is Game of the Year.
This is a bet on a single game, not just in Week 1, but throughout the entire season. Whether wagers ultimately win or lose, the goal is to identify teams that have an inflated perception with more than three months to go until kickoff.
A Game of the Year investment gives us the chance to get ahead of the public perception that was built during spring practice.
While win totals and futures have trickier opportunities for hedges, a single point spread bet this early in the season will give any gambler an opportunity to build a window.
An elite example came in 2015, when Western Kentucky opened as a 16-point underdog to Vanderbilt in the month of May. That number was beaten to a pulp by investors looking at the revamped Hilltoppers.
Those who were early on every Western Kentucky number were rewarded, but those who took the closing line were left empty in the wallet. A touchdown pass with 33 seconds left to play got Vanderbilt the +3 cover in a 14-12 loss.
Market entry is just as vital in 2022 as it was seven years prior. Our favorite early bet of the year comes in the Sept. 17 matchup between Miami and Texas A&M in College Station. The visiting Hurricanes are eightpoint underdogs in the preliminary action at FanDuel, down from an opener of +9.
It’s a new era for Miami football. The Hurricanes, led by new head coach Mario Cristobal, will take the field against a pair of warm-ups in Bethune-Cookman during Week 1 and Southern Miss in Week 2. Those two exhibitions serve as the Tyler Van Dyke Heisman campaign kickoff, as a trip to Kyle Field and Texas A&M awaits in Week 3.
The cupboard was not left bare in the wake of Manny Diaz’s departure, with Miami returning more than 65 percent of its offensive unit, per TARP (Transferring Assets and Returning Production).
Although the Hurricanes finished just outside the top 75 in Success Rate and Finishing Drives, one of the best offensive coordinators in the country joins Cristobal’s staff. Josh Gattis left Michigan to take the same position with Miami and is no stranger to the SEC after previously coaching under Nick Saban.
Gattis was allowed to run his full offense during the 2021 season, leading Michigan to become the most devastating rushing attack in the nation. That offense was good enough to secure the Wolverines a Big Ten title and a groundbreaking trip to the College Football Playoff.
From a transfer portal and returning production perspective, the defense is what really stands out entering the 2022 season. Miami will return 79 percent of the defensive unit that will specialize in Havoc despite the retirement of the turnover chain.
Texas A&M will also be under new management after the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Elko, who is now the head coach at Duke.
From a scheduling perspective, this game comes after an opener with former FCS national champion Sam Houston in Week 1 and Appalachian State during Week 2. Head coach Jimbo Fisher will not overlook the ’Canes, but a revenge spot in the Southwest Classic against Arkansas awaits in Week 4.
The biggest question for Texas A&M this season is who will play quarterback after Zach Calzada transferred to Auburn. Haynes King, returning from an injurymarred 2021 season, did nothing to separate himself from LSU transfer Max Johnson during the spring game, and this battle will continue through September.
Only 58 percent on the offense and 46 percent on the defense will return to College Station.
The Action Network projects this game to be a pick ’em, indicating Miami would be a slight favorite at a neutral site.
Texas A&M’s young offense will look to grasp the pro-style offense, while new defensive coordinator DJ Durkin will coach a 4-2-5 scheme for the first time in his career.
Take the Hurricanes comfortably through +7 all the way to a field goal spread leading up to this monster nonconference game.