Martin’s sheen
Unheralded Texas starter shining this season
IF YOU look at the top of the MLB pitching leaderboard, you’ll see a lot of familiar names. Justin Verlander, back from Tommy John surgery, has a 2.05 ERA and is tied with Walker Buehler for a league-best six wins. Corbin Burnes was in the top 15 in ERA, Robbie Ray ranked in the top five in strikeouts, and the injured Max Scherzer had a top-10 in WHIP and opponent average..
Mixed in with those guys you’ll see a slew of pitchers who were dart throws, at best, in fantasy drafts. The Yankees’ Nestor Cortes, Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer and St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas all headed into the weekend with surprising rankings near the top in various categories.
And then you also have the Rangers’ Martin Perez, the 230thranked pitcher heading into drafts and the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week? To put his preseason status into perspective, he was slotted one spot above Masahiro Tanaka, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2020.
From 2012-21, the 31-year-old Perez was 63-69 with a 4.71 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.0 strikeouts per nine and 3.3 walks per nine while pitching for the Rangers, Twins and Red Sox.
There is nothing suggesting Perez was ready to be anything other than a middling pitcher who might have been worth streaming in the right matchup. Yet, here we are, a quarter way through the season, and Perez is 3-2 with the 14th-lowest opponent average (.208), the 13th-best WHIP (1.01) and the second-best ERA (1.60) in the majors. He also hasn’t allowed a home run after giving up 131 over his first 10 years in the bigs. Perez is striking out a career high 20.2 percent of the batters he faces, though that still ranks in the bottom 20 among qualified starters. His 9.6 percent swinging strike rate is nothing to write home about. So, what gives? Perez is showing much better control. Though he still is walking 2.24 per nine innings (a career low), that is miles better than his career 3.22 BB/9 mark. His barrel rate (2.3 percent) is also a career low.
Perez has a career-best 55.8 percent ground-ball rate, which in the third-best mark in the majors. Another key: He has all but ditched his fastball to rely on his sinker (39.5 percent usage rate, up from 25.3 percent last year), changeup (23.9 percent, .118 opponent average) and cutter (20.8 percent, .143 opponent average). Though opponents are hitting .271 against his sinker, according to Stacast, he has an expected batting average of .238 and 62.7 percent ground-ball rate with the pitch.
Reducing his fastball usage to 7 percent has helped him to dominate against righties, who are hitting .186 with 37 strikeouts and a .499 OPS against him. Righties have hit .291 with .807 OPS against him in his career.
There is also nothing indicating Perez can’t sustain this type of success. His FIP (2.43), xBA (.226) and BaBIP (.266) show there will be regression, but not to the point at which he won’t be a reliable option. His xERA (2.49) is among the top 9 percent of the league, according to Statcast.
Perez is not a flashy young pitcher who will rack up strikeouts or be a potential keeper for 2023. He is a pitcher who has found a formula that works for him. As long as he doesn’t deviate from his current approach, he will continue being a solid fantasy option.