Goalies will control TB-NYR

The Lightning have turned the tables on the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. After going down 2-0 in Game 3 and facing a potential 0-3 deficit in the series, the Bolts roared back to win both contests at Amalie Arena to knot the best-of-seven at two games apiece.

Just like the Rangers were deserving winners in their two victories at Madison Square Garden, the Bolts were full value for their wins in Tampa Bay.

For the third series in a row, the Rangers are struggling to keep up with an opponent at 5-on-5. The Blueshirts and Lightning have played nearly 200 minutes at 5-on-5 this series and while the Rangers have outscored the Bolts, 86, in that span, Tampa Bay holds a 40-26 edge in high-danger scoring chances and a +3.3 expected goal differential.

The Rangers have been a much better team at home this postseason, but there’s reason to believe that the Blueshirts could struggle to generate consistent offense even at the friendly confines of MSG. Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil are both questionable for Game 5, which means at the very least two of Gerard Gallant’s top three centers will be operating at less than 100 percent.

After a slow start to the series, Andrei Vasilevskiy has found his game opposite Igor Shesterkin, who continues to play at an elite level. With the goaltending matchup looking like a blockbuster and the Rangers’ offense compromised, this game should be a tight, low-scoring affair.

THE PLAY: Rangers-Lightning, Under 5 total goals.

Michael Leboff handicaps hockey for The Action Network.