Put something on Andrei giving up nothing
The Lightning are not the type of team to go away quietly. Down 3-1 and facing the monumental task of needing to beat the best team in the NHL three games on the bounce, the banged-up Bolts had every excuse in the book to not be at their best in Game 5.
But that just isn’t how this team is wired. Instead of ceding the floor to the Avalanche, the Lightning played perhaps their best game of the entire postseason on Friday night en route to a 3-2 win.
With the series shifting back to Tampa, the Bolts will have the benefit of the last change and should have a good chance of getting the game on their terms. We know that the Lightning won’t fancy themselves in a track meet against the Avs, so it would not be a surprise for the Bolts to sell out to ugly this one up.
If that is how it plays out, these prop bets should have value for Sunday’s Game 6:
Andrei Vasilevskiy to post a shutout (+1600)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Andrei Vasilevskiy is growing into this playoff series.
After a wobbly start in Games 1 and 2, the all-world netminder has been elite over the past three contests with a .939 save percentage and a +3.3 Goals Saved Above Expectation. The 27-year-old was especially sharp in Game 5 and only was beaten by a couple of awkward bounces off his own players.
Also encouraging is that the Lightning defense has finally found a foothold in this series. After struggling to keep up with the Avalanche for the lion’s share of the first four games, the Bolts limited the Avs to just 1.8 expected goals and six highdanger scoring chances at 5-on-5 on Friday night. That kind of defensive effort, coupled with Vasilevskiy’s form, should make Tampa Bay tough to break down.
This bet is a long shot for good reason — the Avalanche have only been shutout once in 101 games this campaign — but that still doesn’t change the fact that you’re getting an incredible price on the best goaltender in the world to do something we’ve seen him do plenty of times the past three seasons.
Steven Stamkos Anytime Goalscorer (+140)
With just one goal and two assists in five games, it has been a relatively quiet series for Steven Stamkos so far. But a look under the surface reveals Stamkos is trending toward a big performance.
Ondrej Palat ended up playing hero for the Lightning on Friday, but Stamkos was terrific all night with an assist, three shots on goal and seven shot attempts. Only Nikita Kucherov created more expected goals than Stamkos, who ended the night with 0.66 xG.
You might expect Stamkos, one of the best pure finishers in the game, to cash in on a performance like the one he put together on Friday, but overall it’s just encouraging to see his form ticking up.
Home-ice advantage means that Tampa Bay will get the last change, so Stamkos should continue to get good looks at the Colorado net in Game 6.