Horn on the Cobb
Attention! Giants hurler better than stats show
THE LIKELIHOOD of finding an ace on the waiver wire this time of year is about as probable as getting sound financial advice from your dog.
The only chance you have is if one of your competitors dropped Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Brandon Woodruff when they went on the injured list and, for some reason, they’re still sitting there.
Otherwise, you’re looking for other ways to fill out your pitching staff. The wires may not always look pretty, but there are plenty of pitchers out there worthy of consideration, even if their numbers are far from the prettiest to look at. But looks can be deceiving.
Despite striking out career-best 10.4 per nine innings and walking a respectable 2.7 per nine, the Giants’ Alex Cobb is 3-3 with an ugly 5.48 ERA, 1.457 WHIP and .288 opponents average after taking the loss Friday against the Reds.
What those numbers don’t tell you: Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitcher in the majors.
According to Statcast, the veteran had the seventh-lowest expected batting average (.207), the secondlowest expected slugging percentage (.306) and the lowest expected ERA (2.33) among pitchers who have allowed at least 100 balls in play.
Along with that three-plus point differential in his ERA and xERA, Cobb’s FIP (3.21), xFIP (2.69) and bloated .378 BABIP all show just how much bad luck he has had this year. He is also not allowing a ton of hard contact, with his 32.8 percent hard-hit rate ranking just outside the top 10 percent of the league.
More proof as to how insanely unlucky Cobb has been: His best pitches are his sinker (44.2 percent usage rate) and splitter (40.1 percent). Opponents are hitting .302 against his sinker, but have an expected average of .222 against it. They’re hitting .237 (with a 32.8 percent whiff rate) against his splitter, but have an expected average of .168.
Cobb’s numbers don’t look pretty on the surface, and that is why he remains available in nearly 75 percent of ESPN leagues. He is on a team that tends to get the most out of its pitchers, so the 34-year-old should be on your radar as a longterm option as things begin to correct themselves.
Here’s a look at some other starters worthy of your attention:
As a reliever this season (eight appearances), the Blue Jays’ Ross Stripling is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In nine starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 32-5 strikeout-walk rate, 0.96 WHIP and .223 opponents average. In four starts this month, he is 3-1 with a 1.31 ERA (2.21 FIP), 14-3 strikeout-walk rate and .169 opponents average. Now that Hyun Jin Ryu has had Tommy John surgery, Stripling’s rotation spot seems pretty secure, yet he is rostered in just 13.5 percent of ESPN leagues.
After he moved away from Coors Field to the Rangers, a lot was expected of Jon Gray (61.4 percent rostered). Then he went 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA (4.02 FIP) and .248 opponents average over his first seven starts with the Rangers. Things are changing for the 30-year-old. He was 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA, 36-10 strikeout-walk rate and .191 opponents average in his first five starts this month.
The Brewers’ Aaron Ashby (13.3 percent owned) is on the IL with forearm inflammation (he should be back soon), he is another pitcher hurt by bad luck. He has a 4.25 ERA, but an expected ERA of 3.03, according to Statcast. His .336 BABIP, 3.64 FIP and 3.08 xFIP also back that up. He had a 3.73 FIP while going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 33-9 strikeoutwalk rate over his past five starts.