$HORT CIRCUIT
2021 SS class, incoming prospects could undermine deals for 2022 free agents
THE GREATEST free-agent shortstop class ever is nearly midway through its first season under new contracts.
So, of course, it is time for a greater free-agent shortstop class ever.
The last shortstop class lost some oomph because Francisco Lindor signed a record extension for the position before his walk year. Plus, it was always the strong money that Marcus Semien would remain at second base rather than move back to shortstop. What we could not see coming was Trevor Story ending up at second base, too.
But that might be a one-year stopgap before he heads back to shortstop. That’s because Xander Bogaerts is nearly certain to opt out at the end of this season, which would — unless Bogaerts re-signs with Boston — reopen shortstop for Story.
But that is a familiar, well, story. Both Javier Baez and Trea Turner were traded last July and switched to second base — Baez with the Mets because his pal, Lindor, was there; Turner with the Dodgers because Corey Seager was there. Baez signed with the Tigers for six years at $140 million to be their shortstop. Turner returned to short when Seager signed for 10 years at $325 million with the Rangers, who also inked Semien for seven years at $175 million to play second.
In all, Baez, Seager, Semien, Story and Carlos Correa were guaranteed $885.3 million. But you could all but assure the total will be less. Barring catastrophic injury, Correa will opt out of the final two years at $70.2 million owed by the Twins. That will send him right back into the market, along with Bogaerts, Turner and Dansby Swanson.
Going into the weekend, Swanson was ninth in Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs), Bogaerts was 10th, Turner was 15th and Correa, who finished seventh last year, was 67th in 2022 as he played in just 48 of Minnesota’s first 71 games due to a finger injury and COVID-19. He is a pretty good bet to finish much higher by season’s end — in the first 13 games off the COVID list, Correa had a 1.043 OPS.
Bogaerts, Correa, Swanson and Turner can expect to do well in the coming market. But there are going to be lots of hurdles:
1. The money spent on shortstops so far is not paying off.
You have to extend last year’s class a bit more to include Fernando Tatis Jr. and Lindor. Tatis received a 14-year, $340 million extension from the Padres before last season. He finished third for NL MVP in 2021, but also continued to be injury plagued. Then in the offseason, Tatis fractured his left wrist. He has yet to play this season and, as of the onset of the weekend, still had not even been cleared to swing yet.
Lindor had a poor first season with the Mets, and though Year 2 (the first on his 10-year, $341 million extension) is going better, he is still being outperformed by Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez, the key player the Mets moved in the Lindor trade.
Story’s OPS-plus was down 4 points from 2021 to 2022, Seager’s was down 29 points, Baez’s was down 36 points and Semien’s 45 points. The only one up was Correa (plus-9), but (again) he has missed about one-third of the season.
Baez and (especially) Semien have stirred from horrid starts. Story was a roller coaster of woeful April, torrid May, downturn June. Seager has been steadily good, but far from $325 million great.
2. It should be remembered that Correa and Story, in particular, found it difficult to find a market they liked last offseason.
Baez, Semien and Seager capitalized on teams (the Tigers, Rangers) that were trying to change the narrative away from being serial non-contenders. The narrative has not changed for those teams, in part because of meh performances by the signed shortstops. Will that scare off teams for the coming class?
Plus, you have to search for what team will be the next Detroit and Texas? It will not be Baltimore, Cincinnati, Oakland or Pittsburgh. You can almost certainly eliminate Colorado and Arizona, too. Washington probably will have new ownership and could play big, but might save the huge dollars to retain Juan Soto. Kansas City has multiple shortstop options, notably Bobby Witt Jr. Seattle committed long term to J.P. Crawford.
The current under-.500 team that you can imagine playing big for a shortstop is the Cubs. They talked to Baez and Correa this past offseason, so they, in theory, have the cash and the desire to get a difference-making type at the position.
The Braves (Swanson), Dodgers (Turner) and Red Sox (Bogaerts) all have to retain their shortstops or find answers. The Dodgers, for example, could move Gavin Lux to short and try to extend Walker Buehler and Jose Urias. The Phillies and Angels have lots of money tied up elsewhere, and the Angels have to think about an extension for Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees were criticized for not going for a big shortstop, but a 120-win pace is going to embolden them not to overspend there and save their money for extending Aaron Judge.
The Blue Jays already have considered moving Bo Bichette off shortstop, and the White Sox could contemplate the same with Tim Anderson.
3. What is the impact of young players?
The Astros limited their bidding to retain Correa and did not go boldly for Story because they believed in Jeremy Peña, who has honored that faith. The Yankees believed they had two near major league-ready shortstop prospects in Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe.
Consider that five of MLB. com’s top 10 prospects are shortstops: Volpe, CJ Abrams (Padres), Marco Luciano (Giants), Noelvi Marte (Mariners) and Marcelo Mayer (Red Sox) — and only Mayer is not expected to be in the majors by next year. There are another seven shortstops in the top 50, then another six in the top 75. Of course, not all of them will make it or make it at a high level. But many organizations believe they have low-cost solutions close to the majors (Witt and Pittsburgh’s O’Neil Cruz graduated from the preseason top-25 already).
In short, the next class at short again is going to be starstudded. Will the previous free-agent class and the coming class of prospects hurt the coming market?