‘LAG TO SCHOOL’ SALES

Consumers go $low

Retailers banking on strong back-to-school sales will feel the pinch this summer as strapped consumers are on track to sharply curtail their shopping sprees, according to new research.

The critical back-toschool shopping season, which kicks off after July 4 weekend, will grow by 5.5% this year, compared with the torrid 13.1% growth in 2021, according to forecasting research from consulting firm, Customer Growth Partners.

“We can tell momentum weakened in May and June,” said CGP president Craig Johnson, “but if it slides any further, we could see growth of between 2% and 3%” for back to school.

Such low growth would be an ominous sign of a feared recession as consumers feel the sting of the highest inflation rate in 41 years.

“A recession is not a slam dunk, but if consumer spending is down in July and August during the backto-school season, that’s a clear red light instead of a blinking yellow light,” Johnson told The Post.

Over the past 20 years, back-to-school sales have grown on average by 4.5%, according to CGP data.

The expected 5.5% growth is “nothing to sneeze at,” Johnson said, “but it’s clearly a deceleration from 2021.”

The slowdown in consumer spending began in March, he added, with the growth rate dialed back to a 7%, compared with 11% in 2021. Last year, shoppers were flush with cash from stimulus money and had been cooped up by lockdowns after spending the previous year mostly attending school remotely.

Higher prices hurt

But spiking energy prices, declining federal stimulus, rising interest rates, supplychain disruptions and falling personal savings are all taking a toll, especially on lower-income families.

“For consumers, 9% inflation has been an unvarnished disaster, eroding real incomes since wages and salaries are up barely 5% — with the inflation “tax” falling most heavily on lowerincome and fixed-income households,” Johnson said.

Spending on apparel is expected to rise by 5.9%, compared with the whopping 33% growth rate last year.

But spending on electronics is expected to decline by 4% as most shoppers stocked up on devices during the height of the pandemic, when many worked or attended classes remotely.