Passing yards leader slingin’ in AFC West
The 2022-23 NFL season will kick off in a little more than two months.
For bettors, that marks the return of the most popular sport and plenty of opportunities to cash some tickets. For now, though, the focus is on the plethora of futures markets available. Whether it’s divisional winners, awards or conference champions, there are plenty of options for those eager to bet.
After un-retiring, Tom Brady (+800) of the Buccaneers is a tri-favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards, alongside the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and Chargers’ Justin Herbert. The Rams’ Matthew Stafford (+850) and Bengals’ Joe Burrow (10/1) round out the top-five on the odds board.
But which quarterbacks are worth a play? Here are my two best bets for the award.
Justin Herbert (+800)
Herbert was second to Brady in last year’s rankings and is primed for another high-yardage season.
The Oregon product finished only 300 yards behind Brady on 47 fewer attempts. That comes a season after Herbert finished sixth in this market with one fewer game played than most of the quarterbacks ahead of him.
Combine Herbert’s reliability with the fact the Chargers don’t possess a top-tier running game, and he should have plenty of chances to rack up yards. Further, Herbert averaged north of 39 attempts per game in both the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons. Among quarterbacks still active, he ranked first and second, respectively, in attempts/game in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
There’s one other factor worth considering though — the quality of the Chargers division combined with their defensive issues. Last season, Los Angeles ranked 26th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. In the previous season, the Chargers were still a disappointing 20th.
Even with the new additions to Los Angeles’ defense, I expect them to play a lot of high-scoring games against AFC West rivals Denver, Kansas City and Las Vegas, three teams who also have top-flight quarterbacks and explosive offenses. Add in those teams ranked 20th, 21st and 23rd, respectively, in pass defense and I’m further convinced of Herbert’s chances to lead the NFL in passing yards.
Derek Carr (12/1)
The element driving this bet for me is the Raiders’ addition of Davante Adams from Green Bay. By making that move, I believe Las Vegas is signaling to the league it’s going to be a pass-first team. Even without the addition of Adams, there’s a lot to like about Carr. Last season, he ranked fifth in regularseason passing yards, fourth in completions and second in completion percentage (amongst players with at least 400 completions). Plus, the Raiders will play 10 of their 17 games this season against teams that ranked in the bottom-half of pass defense DVOA last season, per Football Outsiders. Six of those games — as mentioned earlier — come in the division against defenses Carr is familiar playing against. As a result, I believe there’s some value on Carr at 12/1, especially with a true No. 1 receiver this season.