Re-enli$ting in the Navy
Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, looking on as his Midshipmen took on Air Force on Oct. 1, has a strong run defense that makes the military academy the pick against Notre Dame on Saturday writes Action Network’s Michael Leboff.
Navy came through with a relatively sweat-free cover last week as an 18point pooch against Cincinnati.
The cover continued one of the strongest trends in college football. Generally speaking, service academies perform admirably as big ’dogs. Army, Navy and Air Force have gone 44-26-1 (.619 winning percentage) against the spread as underdogs of at least 14 points since 2005, per Action Network records.
Well, wouldn’t you know, Navy is a 17point pooch at M&T Bank Stadium against Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. It’s time to go back to the well.
Notre Dame is coming into the weekend with all sorts of momentum after a program-lifting victory over Clemson. The 35-14 trouncing vaulted the Fighting Irish back into the Top 25 in the AP rankings and gave them a realistic shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl in January.
That sets up the tussle Saturday with the Midshipmen as a major letdown spot for Marcus Freeman’s Irish.
Additionally, this is a pretty solid matchup for Navy and its stalwart run defense. That’s a huge plus going against a team that runs the ball at the 11th-highest clip in the country. Notre Dame will want to keep feeding the ball to Audric Estime, but Navy will welcome that because the Midshipmen rank 18th in rushing success rate on defense.
The way to get margin against the Naval Academy is to pick apart its secondary, but that’s just not how Notre Dame operates.
And it’s not just Navy’s defense that should fancy this matchup. The Midshipmen’s offense is also set up to have some success against the Irish. Navy runs the ball on 83.4 percent of its plays, which is the third-highest rate in the country, and should be able to move the chains against a defense that ranks 80th in rushing success rate and 70th in line yards. Notre Dame’s pass defense is terrific, but that won’t matter in this tilt.
Both of these teams run offensive schemes that should help underdog backers here. Not only do they run the ball, which keeps the clock moving and shortens the game, but also neither team is ever in a hurry. Notre Dame’s offense ranks 109th in seconds per play, while Navy is right with them at 113th. Both units average almost 29 seconds per play on the season.
It’s always a plus when you’re catching this many points in a game with a low total. Earlier in the week, this Over/ Under was sitting at 42 points but it has since come down to 39.5, as the betting market expects it to be an ugly game between two run-happy offenses in windy conditions.
The contest ticks so many of the boxes you want when you’re backing a big underdog. It has a low total. Both offenses love to run the ball. The conditions will not be great. And you’re selling high on a public team after a monumental performance in the previous week.
Back Navy +17 to keep this one close for us, again.