So. Carolina can escape the Swamp

South Carolina will travel to the Swamp on Saturday to face Florida in a SEC battle that will help decide bowl positioning. The Gators are laying over a touchdown at home in a matchup that looks pretty even on paper.

Florida has been overvalued all season (Remember when the Gators were favored over LSU three weeks ago?) and I think we are seeing it again against the pesky Gamecocks. Florida is just 1-4 against the spread as a favorite this season with the lone cover coming against overmatched Eastern Washington. The Gators lost two of those games outright.

The problem with laying more than a touchdown with the Gators is that they can’t stop the run. Florida ranks 113th in rush defense, giving up over 191 yards per game. That allows underdogs to shorten the game and limit Florida’s possessions. That’s the blueprint I expect South Carolina to follow on Saturday as well.

The pick: South Carolina +8. CONNECTICUT (+14) over Liberty: While Florida has been overvalued in the betting market, UConn remains undervalued. The Huskies are two-touchdown underdogs at home on Saturday, despite going a stellar 8-2 ATS this season.

Liberty has been a major surprise with wins over BYU and Arkansas. That feels, however, like a sleepy early road game for the Flames. Liberty is coming off an upset over Arkansas last week and will host Virginia Tech next Saturday. This is an awful spot for the Flames to be laying two touchdowns on the road.

Liberty is without top running back Dae Dae Hunter, who rushed for 850 yards and 6.6 yards per carry, so he’s a big loss.

IOWA (+1.5) over Wisconsin: I’d like to apologize in advance for making you care about Iowa football. This is one of those bets that after I hit submit, I let out a sigh because I realized I was going to root for the Iowa “offense” on Saturday, which usually means a blocked punt or interception for touchdowns.

The bottom line is there is just too much value on Iowa +1.5 for me to pass up. I make the Hawkeyes -3 in this game, so even though the Hawkeyes are tough to watch, I had to pull the trigger.

LAST WEEK: 2-2. Notre Dame (W), Kansas (W), Wake Forest (L), Memphis (L).

SEASON: 17-15-1.

Thomas Casale handicaps college football for Action Network.