Tiger’s the story — but in end it’s Rory
He’s baaaack …
Just in case you spent the past few days in varying states of consciousness during and after the WM Phoenix Open (a very real possibility), allow me to offer the spoiler that Tiger Woods will tee it up this week at the Genesis Invitational, his first official start since the 2022 British Open and first at a non-major since the 2021 Zozo Championship.
As the host of his original hometown tournament, Woods loves this one … but it hasn’t exactly loved him back. In 14 career starts, he has made 11 cuts and has four top-10 and two runner-up finishes. That includes his lone career playoff loss, at the hands of Billy Mayfair at Valencia CC in 1998.
All of which leads to a pair of mindnumbing T-Dub facts: He owns a ridiculous 11-1 record in PGA Tour playoffs and he has never won the erstwhile L.A. Open, the tourney he has played the most (by far) without a title.
When Woods announced his commitment to the field last Friday, Jeff Sherman, the VP of Risk at SuperBook Sports, listed him at 100/1 odds to win the tournament outright, a number that has already drifted to 150/1.
He also initially posted Woods’ odds to miss the cut at -155. That had immediate action, moving the line to -170, then -250 and finally -300 by day’s end — all within the span of about five hours.
As for his first-round score, the original over/under of 72.5 was hit so hard on the high side that it quickly shifted to 73.5.
I’ve only said about a billion times over the years that I’ll never doubt the man. I don’t care if Woods is 78 years old and can barely swing a club, I’ll still believe there’s always a chance.
That said, I’m in line with the fades this week. It’s hard to envision this appearance as much more than great PR for the tournament and essentially a spring training rep for
Woods. That’s not to sound negative, because I love the fact that he’s healthy enough to tee it up and is getting in some competitive rounds before major championship season rolls around, but I find it hard to believe he’s going to shoot some impressive scores right out of the chute, especially on the day when he’s playing in chilly morning conditions.
Outright winner
Short odds: Rory McIlroy (+950, BetMGM):
I’d love it if McIlroy’s price were a little longer, but he’s really good and that is how really good players are priced. If we’ve learned anything at the designated events so far, it’s that a Nick Taylor type can certainly contend, but these tournaments are going to largely be the domain of the big boys — at least until the novelty wears off.
While I understand that McIlroy might scare some of us based on his T32 finish this past week, in briefly speaking with him prior to the start of the event, I think there was always some reason to believe he might not have been fully engaged in all of the festivities at that one.
Let’s see how a world-class player, with an average finish of 8.4 on a backto-back start, turns things around at this one.
Long odds: Thomas Detry (150/1, BetMGM):
I don’t know that Detry is ready to win an event of this magnitude against a field of this strength, but I like the course fit so much that I won’t be able to resist a small outright play and didn’t want to bury his name here for some mid-column top-20 prop, even though I’ll play him for some of those, too.
The truth is, the long-hitting PGA Tour rookie owns nine career topthree results on the DP World Tour without a victory, so there’s viable rationale behind questioning his win equity at this level. If we can look beyond that, Detry ranks 34th this season in strokes gained tee to green, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number keeps rising as he continues to feel more comfortable. He already has shown us an impressive ceiling-floor combination, with eight made cuts in eight starts, including four top-25s and two top-10s.
Again, I don’t know if he’s ready to win this type of tourney, but he certainly doesn’t seem intimidated. I’ll have a small piece at a big price and chase it with some other investments.