RUN OF THE BILL
A case can be made for the Giants to bring back Saquon Barkley because he is the best player on their offense and the face of the franchise, and because his leadership, media relations and standing in the community are all nextlevel. He should have several productive years ahead of him, despite the demanding position he plays.
A case also can be made for the Giants to move on from Barkley, because it is unwise (although certainly not unprecedented) to sign a running back to a hefty second contract. Going down that road would allow for no detours, as far as taking into account any of his off-the-chart intangibles or the possible negative effect his absence would have on the operation in general and on quarterback Daniel Jones, one of his best friends on the team, in particular.
What to do with Barkley looms over the Giants’ plan of attack for the offseason, even though the financial outlay to keep Jones off the open market will be far more costly.
Jones’ presence in the huddle in 2023 is really not up for debate in the minds of general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll. Jones will return for a fifth season as the starting quarterback, one way or another. The Giants prefer it to be on a multiyear contract (five years is optimal for the team) that eases the salary-cap hit in 2023 (five years, $190 million is in the ballpark), but the fallback of the franchise tag of $32.4 million for the 2023 season is available, though an option neither side wants to see transpire.
The first day the Giants can use the tag is Tuesday and the last day is March 7. If necessary, the tag can be used on Jones as a placeholder to keep him off the market (teams can start negotiating with free agents March 13) while a longer deal is negotiated, but that tack would mean $32.4 million would be unavailable for the Giants to use in free agency. That would put a crimp in Schoen’s plans, as tagging Jones would temporarily eat up most of the Giants’ $44.4 million in cap space. The two sides would have until July 15 to work out a multiyear deal or Jones would have to play on a one-year deal.
Jones was not thrilled that the new regime came in and immediately declined to pick up his fifthyear option, which would have paid him $22.3 million for the 2023 season. That was Schoen’s way of saying, “Prove to us you deserve the money,’’ and Jones went out, stayed healthy, showed an affinity for Daboll’s offense and helped the Giants get into the playoffs for the first time since 2016. He proved it to Schoen and Daboll.
Jones intensely wants to stay, but there is no such thing as a hometown discount when it comes to the contracts of starting quarterbacks. Player representation is concerned with “winning’’ the negotiation to show the next crop of college athletes that signing with them is the ticket to the biggest bucks. Most often, there is really no consideration about what is good for the Giants, though Jones taking a few less bucks would help Schoen provide him with upgraded weapons.
In some ways, figuring out what Barkley is worth is easier. He was the No. 2-overall pick in the 2018 draft. Nick Chubb went to the Browns with the third pick of the second round, the 35th player selected. Both were highly productive running backs at big-time college programs (Barkley at Penn State; Chubb at Georgia). Barkley was far more heralded entering the NFL.
After five seasons, there is no argument to be made regarding which player has been more durable and dependable. Barkley has played in 60 of 82 games. Chubb has played in 75 of 82 games. Chubb has basically surpassed 1,000 yards in all five seasons (he ran for 996 yards as a rookie) and his career rushing totals are 6,341 yards and 48 touchdowns. Barkley has three 1,000-yard rushing seasons, a total of 4,249 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. Chubb has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt. Barkley has averaged 4.5. Barkley is by far the more productive receiver (247-1,820, eight TDs), compared to Chubb (119990, four TDs). Chubb has lost six fumbles, Barkley just two.
That Barkley tore an ACL in Week 3 in 2020 is obviously a huge factor in assessing his career production, but his reconstructive knee surgery is part of his résumé. His 2022 season of 1,312 rushing yards was a career high, but he was surpassed by Chubb, who ran for 1,525 yards. Chubb was third in the NFL in rushing (behind Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry), and Barkley was fourth.
There are always factors to consider when comparing the numbers of two players — the capability of the offensive line, the inability of the passing game to relieve the pressure of a stacked box — but there is no reasonable argument that Barkley, who just turned 26, should be paid more than Chubb, who turned 27 in December.
Three years into his rookie contract, the Browns gave Chubb a three-year extension for $36.6 million, with $20 million in guaranteed money. It comes as no surprise that the Giants’ initial offer to Barkley during the bye week in November was for three years and right around $37.5 million — essentially the same deal as Chubb, adjusted for inflation. Barkley’s camp then shot for the moon, asking for the $16 million per year Christian McCaffrey makes, to set the running back standard. Clearly, neither side at the time was desperate to get something done.
As of the latest talks, a gap still exists. The Giants are not going to go much higher than an annual average of $12.5 million. They could increase their offer as far as guarantees. The Giants have little interest in having Barkley play the 2023 season on the franchise tag for $10.1 million because they are unwilling to eat up so much of their cap space on a running back. In the first year of Chubb’s new contract, 2021, his salary cap number was $4.7 million. That is more in line with what the Giants are thinking for Barkley.
As the Giants’ Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year nominee, Barkley is an established “good guy’’ in the New York-New Jersey area. The franchise means something to him, and he has said he realizes his past injuries will have a negative impact on his asking price. How willing he is to suppress the money-ego component, while trying to figure out which team out there will come up with a better offer, will determine his future.
Is it easy to envision Daniel Jones not playing for the Giants in 2023? No. The same cannot be said for Saquon Barkley.