Take the points with surging Red Raiders

It’s been a disappointing season for Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders enter Tuesday night’s matchup against Oklahoma playing their best basketball since early December.

Texas Tech has won three straight and five of seven overall. The Red Raiders had a dreadful start to Big 12 play, losing their first eight games. However, since the rough start, they have beaten Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas and West Virginia. They also dropped a tough game at Oklahoma State by three points, so there is no question Texas Tech is peaking late in the season.

Like Texas Tech, Oklahoma has struggled in the rugged Big 12. The Sooners are 3-11 in conference play but are coming off a win over Kansas and 2point overtime loss at Texas.

While Oklahoma is better than its 13-14 record, this line feels a little high against a hot Texas Tech squad. This will likely be a tight game and the deciding factor could be turnovers.

Both of these teams struggle with ball security. According to KenPom, Oklahoma ranks 289th in turnover percentage, while Texas Tech comes in at 293. The difference is on the defensive side of the ball. Oklahoma is one of the worst teams in the country at creating turnovers, while Texas Tech’s ball pressure defense ranks 47th in that department.

In its last three wins, Texas Tech has forced 53 turnovers and improved play on defense has been a big reason for the Red Raiders’ late-season turnaround. Oklahoma won the first meeting 68-63 in OT. Look for another tight game on Tuesday.

I’ll take the points with Texas Tech on the road.

THE PLAY: Texas Tech, +2.

Thomas Casale handicaps college basketball for Action Network.