Who's gonna Brew up unlikely title?
Spring training is a time for clichés. The slate is clean. Hope springs eternal. All 30 teams are tied with the best record in baseball.
It’s nice to get caught up in that kind of stuff, but the reality is that only half of the teams in the MLB are actively trying to win this season. And of that, only a handful seem to have a legitimate shot at hoisting the trophy.
According to Sports Odds History, the last time a team with Opening Day odds longer than 20/1 won the World Series was in 2015 when the Kansas City Royals took home the hardware as 33/1 outsiders. But even that result wasn’t all that shocking as the Royals surprisingly won the AL pennant in 2014, so it’s not like they came out of nowhere.
Given the state of the MLB — it’s a league of “haves and have-nots” right now — it’s hard to envision a path to success for a long-shot winner in 2023. But if you are going to take one stab on a Cinderella, you should focus on the path, rather than the team itself.
For example, the Orioles had themselves a very encouraging 2022 season that saw them hang around the wild-card race after years of ineptitude. It may be tempting to back the Orioles at 66/1 to back up that performance in 2023, but they’ll be playing in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays are the second, third and fifth-favorites, respectively, to win the American League pennant, so just competing with their division rivals seems like a big ask of the O’s.
You can make similar arguments against other tempting long shots like the Marlins — who have to compete with the Mets, Braves and Phillies in the NL East — the Rangers — who need to do the same with the Astros, Mariners and Angels — and the Diamondbacks — who will be going up against the Dodgers, Padres and Giants.
The American League Central is wide open, with the Guardians, White Sox and Twins projected to duke it out for the title. The top of the division is so pedestrian that perhaps you can throw some money on a triple-digit long shot like the Tigers or Royals and get a sweat out of it, but the Tigers, who were a relatively trendy long shot last year, finished with 66 wins in 2022 and the Royals were worse.
The NL Central does look like it could be open for some chaos, though.
The Cardinals are odds-on to win the division at -120, but their projections are pretty modest. The Cards have an Over/ Under of 89.5 wins and PECOTA projects them to finish second to the Brewers. The Brew Crew are 40/1 to win the World Series, which is nearly double the odds of the Cardinals at 22/1.
Milwaukee’s offense will likely need to over-perform for the team to be a true contender, but the pitching staff does have some serious upside with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Brewers to finish with the fewest runs allowed in their division.
Finding a long shot in the World Series market has been a fool’s errand for almost a decade now, but of all the potential upstarts, the Brewers seem to have the most upside and the path to the playoffs isn’t all that daunting.
A lot can change between now and Opening Day, but the Brew Crew are a tempting price at 40/1.