The two Knicks bets to make right now
The NBA All-Star break means we’ve hit the home stretch of the season, with only 21-25 games left for every team.
The break also means we get a chance to catch our breath and re-evaluate these teams at the quarter pole, and that makes it a great time to add some futures positions as books reopen updated win totals, division and play-in odds, and more with the week off.
I’ve got my eye on some teams I think the books are mispricing. Let’s talk about those teams and how to bet their futures going forward.
Knicks
This Knicks season has been a wild ride. A 3-1 start was followed by 12 losses in 19 games. The season peaked in December with an eight-game win streak, followed immediately by five straight losses, then seven wins in eight, then another four Ls.
It’s been a roller-coaster ride, but through it all, New York finds itself ranked seventh in Net Rating and sixth in Offensive Rating. Jalen Brunson has stabilized this team, and Josh Hart already looks like a big addition. New York is 23-15 since the start of December, a 50-win pace, and we already know they’ll push all the way with Tom Thibodeau at the helm.
The Knicks are 33-27 and look likely to fall somewhere in the Nos. 5-7-seed range, important because finishing seventh means a play-in game and New York will push for every win to avoid that. That means staying ahead of the Heat, who are a half game back, or catching the blown-up Nets, who are just one win ahead.
The numbers say the Knicks are the best of the three and maybe the most stable, despite everything. With 22 games left, they need only a .500 finish at 11-11 to hit their updated win total of 43.5. If you like the Knicks and also want to fade Miami or Brooklyn, you can play New York Under 6.5-seed (+145, DraftKings). I think they finish ahead of both, so I like that one, too.
How to bet: Knicks Over 43.5 wins and Under 6.5 seed.
Mavericks
The East looks mostly straightforward, but the West is a jumbled mess other than the very top and bottom. That leaves room to sort through the mess for the right angles.
There’s a lot of excitement for the Mavericks after the trade for Kyrie Irving. His numbers have been good since arriving, but he’s just 2-2 in the lineup and Dallas is 2-3 since his debut. The Mavs certainly have more of a spark on offense, but the defense has been badly exposed. It wasn’t exactly good before, and the loss of Dorian Finney-Smith has been felt immediately.
The market is treating Dallas like it belongs in the Nos. 3-6-seed range with the Suns and Clippers, but I think they’re more in the Nos. 6-11-seed range, one tier down. We know how good Irving and Luka Doncic can be, but both are constantly nicked up with injuries and Irving isn’t reliable night to night. Add in a leaky defense that can blow a game any night, and I just can’t trust Dallas.
The Mavs are 31-29. Even if they’re good, they have to finish 15-7 to go over the updated win total of 45.5. That’s a 56-win pace over a full season, and even with a soft closing schedule, I just can’t get there with this squad.
I’ll take the Under, and if you really want to fade Dallas and agree they’re in that play-in range, you can push this further. The Mavs are +350 (BetRivers) to make the play-in, despite being tied in the loss column for the 10th spot. That’s less likely, but it’s also a bad number.
How to bet: Mavericks Under 45.5 wins
Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are 35-22 and have established their winning formula: Play hard every night, protect home court, and win with depth and defense. Memphis is playing at a 50-win pace and probably better than its underlying numbers since injuries have significantly impacted all but one starter. It’s really hard to see the top of the West standings looking anything other than Nuggets at No. 1 and Grizzlies at No. 2 when the playoffs start. We often think of post All-Star break as the “second half ” of the season, but the truth is we’re already hitting the home stretch. How to bet: Grizzlies to be No. 2 seed (-150, DraftKings). Brandon Anderson analyzes the NBA for Action Network.