Betting concerns on Kane trade to Rangers
It’s pretty easy to see why fans and the hockey media are excited that the Rangers acquired Patrick Kane. The 34year-old has been one of the biggest stars in the NHL since he was drafted first overall in 2007 and now gets to play in the league’s shiniest market. There’s some Hollywood potential with this new marriage.
Usually when a trade is met with this kind of excitement, the betting market reacts. Sometimes in a big way. But for this particular move, the adjustment from the bookmakers has been muted. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, the Rangers were +1400 to win the Stanley Cup at their shop last week before it became clear Kane was heading to Broadway and now sit at +1100, which is essentially moving from a 6.7 percent implied win probability to an 8.3 percent chance of winning a ring.
And even that 1.6 percent jump needs some context. The Rangers are a bigmarket team in a state with legal sports betting, so bookmakers will always put a premium on their price since they know they’ll get plenty of money on the Blueshirts no matter the odds.
But it’s not just the market factors that are keeping this price in the double digits behind the Eastern Conference juggernauts. There are also some onand off-ice concerns that this trade creates.
No team in the NHL has enjoyed better injury luck than the Rangers this season. Entering play on Wednesday, New York’s top five defensemen had missed a combined three games with injury and all of those were by the same defenseman (Ryan Lindgren).
It’s a similar story with the forwards. The Rangers’ top-nine forwards have missed a total of 13 games this season and that includes a couple of healthy scratches. Eight of those man-games lost were by Filip Chytil.
Why is this relevant? Because the Kane trade takes away any roster flexibility the Rangers had. As The New York Post’s Larry Brooks reported, the team won’t be able to carry more than 21 players the remainder of the regular season and right now the roster includes an extra defenseman. If a forward gets hurt, the Rangers would have to play shorthanded one game (or dress seven defensemen), then call up a forward from AHL Hartford that is making less than $850,000 under emergency conditions. The salary cap does not carry over into the playoffs, though.
In other words, if the Rangers’ run into injury issues for the first time in two seasons, they’ll have to rework a lot of things thanks to the Kane maneuver.
And on the ice, it’s fair to question just how much better this move makes this team. Kane is a wizard in the offensive zone and with the puck on his stick, but the Rangers were already flush with those kinds of performers. In his own zone, Kane — well, let’s just say that’s not what he’s paid for. Nor is his projected linemate, Artemi Panarin. Against dynamic forechecking teams like Carolina, New Jersey, Boston or Tampa Bay that could go south. Or at the very least, will need a deft touch from Gerard Gallant.
Patrick Kane’s numbers may be down this season, but we all know that there’s plenty of upside with this addition. But, as the betting market shows, that upside may not meet the hype.