Get off the Matt
Best to bypass Olson in fantasy drafts
BEFORE you click “draft” in your virtual draft room or scream your pick’s name across your buddy’s basement, make sure you ask yourself these questions: Is this player worth being taken at this point? Who else is available? Can I get more bang for my buck later? When it comes to first basemen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt will be the first four taken. The last of the top-tier at the position is Matt Olson, a great power-hitter who is glued to the middle of a loaded Braves lineup. The most important number to consider when drafting Olson is this: 35.28. That’s his average draft position, according to
Fantasy Alarm. He’s a top-five first baseman, but that doesn’t mean his ADP offers your team the best value in that spot.
Now, ask yourself those questions:
1. Is this player worth being taken at this point?
In his first year as Freeman’s replacement in Atlanta, Olson ranked eighth in RBIs (103), 11th in homers (34) and 24th in slugging percentage (.477). His average exit velocity ranked in the top 3 percent of the league, and his hard-hit rate was in the top 4 percent.
Though his .276 BABIP indicates there was room for improvement, know that his average (.240) dipped more than 30 points after he hit .271 in 2021. His walk rate (10.7 percent) was down from 13.1 percent in 2021. His strikeout rate jumped from 16.8 percent in 2021 to 24.3 percent. He stole no bases after having four in 2021.
Olson’s numbers also dipped in the second half for a second straight year. After hitting .255 with 17 homers, 60 RBIs and a .828 OPS in the first half in 2022, he hit .219 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs and a .765 OPS after the break. That includes hitting .193 with a .695 OPS over the final 31 games — when fantasy owners needed him most.
2. Who else is available?
For around that same ADP, you could have well-rounded players such as Francisco Lindor (36.65), Randy Arozarena (39.97) or Cedric Mullins (47.58). They may not offer Olson’s power or RBI total, but do offer better averages, runs and something Olson will never provide: stolen bases. You also could grab a top-15 starting pitcher — such as Spencer Strider (35.2), Max Scherzer (40.07), Brandon Woodruff (40.3) or Carlos Rodon (42.68).
3. Can get I more bang for my buck later?
Worried about the first basemen available if you bypass Olson? Don’t be. First base is a deep position — like, absurdly deep. You can wait about four rounds and grab Houston’s Jose Abreu (79.92). Almost 60 picks after Olson is ripped off the boards, you can snag a youngster with tons of upside in Roto Rage favorite Vinnie Pasquantino (94.52) — who hit .346 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 16 runs, a 15-21 strikeout-walk rate and .960 OPS over the Royals’ final 43 games in 2022.
Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe (100.25), Colorado’s C.J. Cron (119.98) and Arizona’s Christian Walker (121.22) — the 2022 waiver-wire darling who smashed more homers (36) and had an ever-soslightly better average (.242) and OPS (.804) than Olson — are solid mid-round options.
The White Sox’s Andrew Vaughn (141.03) can be had at great value, as can Cleveland’s presumptive cleanup hitter, Josh Bell (166.62). Roto Rage also believes Milwaukee’s Rowdy Tellez (170.32), who smashed 35 homers and drove in 89 runs, should have a huge target on his back.
Boston’s Triston Casas (218.05) is an intriguing lateround option, as are Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (260.13), Cincinnati’s Wil Myers (262.27), the Angels’ Jared Walsh (291.27) and Tampa Bay’s Harold Ramirez (350.9).
Olson is undoubtedly a great fantasy option, but Roto Rage believes the price is high — especially when you understand what else is out there.