It’s the Creigh’ to go in Big East Tourney
Selection Sunday is less than a week away but before we get to the madness, conference tournaments take center stage.
There are many different ways to approach conference tournaments. I analyze them similarly to how I do the NCAA Tournament brackets. While I may like certain teams, I’ll stay away from them if they get tough draws. In a lot of these tournaments, one side of the bracket can be loaded with potential winners, while the other half can be less competitive on paper. That’s where I look for value.
Here are my three favorite conference tournament futures (odds via FanDuel):
Creighton +250 to win Big East
I bet Creighton to win the NCAA Tournament last April at odds of 100/1. That’s great value but to be honest, the Bluejays never became the team many of us thought they would be this season.
Still, I have to go back to Creighton here simply because of the draw. Marquette, UConn and Providence all have to battle it out in the upper half of the bracket. Those three teams are responsible for four of Creighton’s six conference losses this season.
In the Bluejays’ half of the bracket, the biggest obstacles are Xavier and Villanova. While both teams did beat Creighton on their home floors, it’s a much easier path to the conference title game than if the Bluejays had to face more physical teams like Marquette or UConn.
Villanova is limited offensively and Creighton scored an average of 85.5 points in two games against Xavier. I like the Bluejays to emerge from their half of the bracket and reach the championship game. Then we’ll take our chances.
Anything can happen in a tournament setting but Creighton has one of the easiest paths to a title game in any major conference.
Arizona +190 to win Pac-12
The Pac-12 is extremely topheavy with UCLA and Arizona being clearly the two top teams, and USC a step behind. Every other team has double-digit odds to win the tournament.
I think UCLA is the best team in the conference.
The Bruins have been my pick to win it all for over a month, but they were dealt a huge blow on Saturday when Jaylen Clark left the game with what looked to be a serious injury. Clark is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and one of the only players the Bruins can’t afford to lose.
With Clark likely out for at least the Pac-12 tournament, that opens the door for Arizona. The teams split their two meetings in the regular season, each winning on its home floor. However, without the 6-foot-5 guard in the lineup, Arizona’s huge front line will have an edge if the two meet in the title game.
Clark is primarily a perimeter defender but he’s also one of the best players in the country at stopping dribble penetration to the rim. The junior guard also averages six rebounds a game. One of UCLA’s few weaknesses is height. Only one guy who plays regular minutes is taller than 6-7, so the Bruins rely a lot on their bigger guards to hit the boards. Without Clark, Arizona’s twin towers of Azuolas Tubelis (6-11) and Oumar Ballo (7-0) will have even more success in the paint if the teams meet for a third time.
The likely loss of one of the Bruins’ top players creates some value on Arizona at +190.
Kentucky +470 to win SEC
I haven’t been a big fan of this Kentucky squad all season, but it is playing its best basketball of the season over the final month.
The Wildcats finished the regular season 5-1 with quality wins over Mississippi State (road), Arkansas (road) and Tennessee (home). And even though Kentucky has struggled at times this year, they do own seven wins over the KenPom Top 50. When they are on their game, the Wildcats can beat anyone in the country. Kentucky also got a nice draw avoiding the two favorites (Alabama and Tennessee) until a potential matchup in the title game. They would likely need to beat Vanderbilt and then the winner of Arkansas-Texas A&M to reach the championship. That’s worth a shot at +470 odds.
Thomas Casale analyzes college basketball for Action Network.