Caution needed on brink of deal
If Aaron Rodgers does decide to come to the Jets, one of the most interesting things to see will be what the deal costs Gang Green.
A report from ESPN early Thursday morning said that the Jets had “optimism that they are on the brink of landing” Rodgers, the four-time MVP quarterback. But as Thursday night fell, the Jets were still waiting to hear whether Rodgers wanted to come to New York.
The Jets met with Rodgers on Tuesday in California to give their sales pitch and get to know the 39year-old future Hall of Famer. The Packers had to grant permission for the Jets and Rodgers to speak. The fact the Packers granted that permission makes it likely the teams have already agreed upon the framework of a trade.
Speculation about what a Rodgers trade would cost has been all over the map. Some people have said it would cost two first-round picks, but this is not like the Russell Wilson trade, which cost the Broncos two first-rounders and more.
Rodgers is 39 years old and has a price tag of nearly $60 million in 2023. If the Packers eat some of that salary, the trade compensation may go up. But it is pretty clear the Packers don’t have much leverage here. By allowing the Jets to speak to Rodgers, they declared their intention to move on. It would be hard to turn back now.
People around the league believe the Jets can land Rodgers for a package led by a second-round pick in 2023 and a conditional pick in 2024, which could rise to a first-round pick if Rodgers hits major marks, such as winning the league MVP or the Jets reaching the Super Bowl.
Jets fans should feel good about general manager Joe Douglas’ ability to swing a deal that has value. Douglas has had some missteps as Jets GM (Zach Wilson, anyone?), but he has shown that he is a shrewd negotiator when it comes to trades. It would be surprising if the Jets can’t land Rodgers for a reasonable trade package.
A deal for Rodgers would be the biggest move of the Douglas era, but he already has some pretty strong ones on his résumé.
In 2020, Douglas traded star safety Jamal Adams to the Seahawks, along with a 2022 fourth-round pick, in exchange for Seattle’s firstround picks in 2021 and 2022 (which ended up being a top-10 pick), safety Bradley McDougald and a 2021 third-round pick.
Douglas used the pair of picks in 2021 to move up and acquire guard Alijah Vera-Tucker in the draft. Vera-Tucker seemed to be on the verge of a Pro Bowl season before he tore his biceps in Week 7 last year. In 2022, the Jets used the No. 10 overall pick from the Seahawks to draft Garrett Wilson, who was named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Since the trade, Adams has battled injuries. He only played in one game last season.
The second big trade that Douglas pulled off was shipping quarterback Sam Darnold to the Panthers in 2021. The Jets got a 2021 sixth-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick and a 2022 fourth-round pick from Carolina. The Jets used the second-round pick last year to trade up to acquire running back Breece Hall, who was one of the best rookies in football before he tore his left ACL in Week 7.
While the Adams and Darnold trades are the headliners, Douglas has also made other strong moves, such as trading tight end Chris Herndon to the Vikings for a fourthround pick. He got a sixthround pick from the Texans for linebacker Blake Cashman. He also has been aggressive in the draft, trading up for Vera-Tucker, Hall and Jermaine Johnson.
For much of his time as GM, Douglas has been the one trading players for draft picks. Now, he is the one trying to acquire a star player. Rodgers can change the Jets franchise, but Douglas has to be cautious about overpaying for a player who likely won’t be on the Jets more than two seasons.