Tips for building strong bracket
There’s no tradition quite like filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket every spring — even if you’re bound to rip it to shreds within three weeks, at best.
Ultimately, your bracket won’t be perfect this year. (We’ve never seen one in human history.) But whether this is your first time filling out a bracket or you’re a seasoned veteran, it helps to follow the same guiding principles that have defined March Madness for decades.
Here are four simple tips to remember when filling out your tournament bracket this year:
Don’t fill out an all-chalk bracket
While going with the lower-seeded team is often the safer play in a vacuum, it’s rarely the right call to fill out your bracket with the favorites to the end.
Consider that all four No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four just once in tournament history (2008), and we’ve seen only five other tournaments with more than two top seeds making it to the final weekend. And while 12 of the last 15 title winners have been a No. 1 seed, eighthseeded North Carolina nearly won it a year ago before blowing a 15-point halftime lead.
Pick a double-digit seed to advance
First-round upsets are all the rage come tournament time, but your bracket isn’t complete without at least one double-digit seed making a run beyond the first weekend.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, at least one double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in all but two of those 37 tournaments. At least one has reached the second weekend in 14 consecutive tournaments, with a whopping four such teams crashing the party in each of the last two seasons.
Last year, Saint Peter’s became the first No. 15 seed in tournament history to reach the Elite Eight but the third such seed to reach the Sweet 16 in the last decade. We may or may not see that level of chaos this year, but we’re almost certain to see at least one double-digit seed left standing among the final 16 teams.
Avoid the trendy underdog
Even though we’ve come to expect mayhem in the first two days of the tournament, there’s always one team that everyone seems to rally around to pull off a first-round upset — even when it doesn’t make much sense on paper.
Last year, South Dakota State was the trendy pick against a battle-tested Providence team that, warts and all, made quick work of the overmatched Jackrabbits. The year before, Colgate captured the nation’s heart before getting boat-raced by an Arkansas team with a similar style and infinitely more talent.
That isn’t to say upsets can’t be predictable, but be wary of any double-digit seed that draws near-unanimous public approval. And if you’re trying to win your bracket pool, it’s often best to zig when everyone else zags — which can mean making the chalky pick in contrast to everyone else’s hysteria.
Back a balanced champion
For all of the upsets that litter the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the profile for the eventual champion has been remarkably stable over the years.
Since 2003, every national champion has ranked in the top 25 in adjusted net efficiency, and all but one of them (2014 Connecticut) was a top-three seed. That UConn team was also the only one that ranked outside of the top 25 in offensive efficiency, while 16 of those 20 title winners boasted a top-30 defense, too.
We’ve seen some teams threaten to upend that model (Butler, anyone?), but we’ve yet to see a true Cinderella cut down the nets in the modern era. This could certainly be the year given all the upheaval over the last few months, but you’re much better off picking your spots in the opening rounds before ultimately settling on a well-rounded champion.