Don’t be too Brave
No need to rush to grab Atlanta OF
MARCH Madness is always full of surprises, like Farleigh Dickinson taking down Purdue to become just the second No. 16 seed ever to oust a No. 1 seed. Or Princeton topping No. 2 Arizona, marking the third straight year a No. 15 seed has won a firstround matchup.
It truly is madness! But, March Madness is not just relegated to college basketball. There is plenty of madness going on in fantasy baseball drafts.
The madness starts with Michael Harris — who was the 2022 National League Rookie of the Year after hitting 19 homers with 64 RBIs, 75 runs, 20 stolen bases and a .297/.339/.514 slash line in 114 games for the Braves. With a stat line like that, there is bound to be excitement, right?
Well, maybe a bit too much excitement.
According to Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ average draft position is 37.87, but there are sites that have his ADP as high as 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He is at 33.3 at Yahoo. That means, in some cases, Harris is being drafted as a top-10 outfielder or among the top 25 overall.
That is a steep price for a player who has played just 114 games. There is no arguing the tools he brings to the table (and he really does bring a whole tool bag), but there are concerns that make Roto Rage believe Harris will be very good, but ultimately not live up to that lofty draft status.
Among players with a minimum of 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7 percent chase rate (swings at pitches outside of the strike zone) was the 12th worst in the majors. That aided in his 4.8 percent walk rate, which was the 18th-worst in the league, and his 24.3 percent strikeout rate (the 23rdworst mark in the NL).
Harris hit .297, but his fartoo-high .361 BABIP indicates luck was on his side — and it is hard to believe that number is sustainable, especially when his expected batting average (.268) was nearly 30 points lower than his actual average and his insane 56.2 groundball rate was the fourthhighest in the majors. Oh, his expected slugging percentage (.460) was more than 50 points lower than his actual .514 slugging percentage. Those numbers scream one thing: regression.
How about Harris’ struggles against left-handed pitching? In 135 plate appearances against lefties last season, he hit .238 with 13 runs, 41 strikeouts (30.4 percent strikeout rate), a .649 OPS and just seven walks. He also had a .337 BABIP against southpaws. That’s problematic.
The problem with Harris is not his upside or his talent, it is his current price tag. It’s just too high. In order to get a good return on him being drafted as a top-25 player, he has to duplicate his 2022 success (and then some), and that is no easy task. There are just too many red flags to pay a premium price for an inexperienced player who has numbers pointing toward regression. Roto Rage would rather target more proven outfielders — such as Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64)
Other outfielders to be wary of include:
Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) goes from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher-haven Seattle. That is not something fantasy managers should be considering good fortune.
Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds’ (77.31) is a really good player in a bad situation. He just doesn’t have enough support in the Pirates’ lineup to give fantasy owners the numbers he is capable of. He will be good, but unlikely to be truly great ... unless he finally getting traded. The Mets’ Starling Marte (92.29) is an oft-injured 34-year-old with declining sprint speed who had offseason surgery and has missed 30 or more games in all but one season since 2016. You do the math.