Three long-shot teams that can keep it going
If you’re a fan of upsets and buzzerbeaters, then it’s hard to do much better than the first weekend of this year’s NCAA Tournament, which featured upsets galore and multiple games that came down to the final possession.
Now we’re left with a 16-team field headlined by a few predictable juggernauts and a host of tournament upstarts hoping to extend their Cinderella run for two more weeks. Do any of the long shots in the Sweet 16 actually have what it takes to win it all?
Here are three teams with an outside shot at a deep run heading into the second weekend, with odds courtesy of BetMGM:
Kansas State (25/1)
I’ve been vocally dismissive of this Kansas State squad, which I felt had clear weaknesses entering the tournament despite its impressive résumé on paper. We simply haven’t seen those problems crop up over the first two rounds, which could portend a deep run for Jerome Tang’s Wildcats.
Kansas State’s biggest issue heading into the tournament was its propensity for turning it over at an alarming rate (21.3 percent) over its previous 10 games. Incredibly, the Wildcats coughed it up just eight times in Sunday’s win over Kentucky — their thirdfewest in a game all year — which freed up Markquis Nowell (27 points) and this suddenly potent offense to attack the paint with reckless abandon.
Thursday at Madison Square Garden, this group faces No. 7 seed Michigan State, which ranks among the nation’s worst at forcing turnovers (15.1 percent) and getting to the line (26.9 percent), the two clear ways to attack this Kansas State squad. The downside is still there if the ’Cats draw the wrong matchup, but I’m a believer in this team’s upside after what we’ve seen thus far.
San Diego State (40/1)
Are we sure San Diego State deserves to be priced as such a distant long shot? The Aztecs looked thoroughly dominant in their 23-point win over Furman on Saturday, and they have the style and tenacity to frustrate high-end opponents in this tournament.
The biggest test, obviously, comes Friday against title-favorite Alabama, which features an elite defense and a superstar scorer in Brandon Miller. Yet the Crimson Tide love operating at a breakneck pace, which will be tough against a methodical SDSU defense that dictates the pace and dares teams to bury themselves with a mountain of illadvised triples.
That could work against Alabama, which ranks eighth in 3-point rate (47.5 percent) despite subpar efficiency from deep (34.1 percent), and we could see the demise for likely Elite Eight opponent Creighton, which relies on a similar style. The road ahead is tricky for Brian Dutcher’s group, but at this price, there’s a clear path to profitability.
Florida Atlantic (50/1)
The Owls have been undervalued this entire tournament despite boasting the best record in college basketball (33-3) and a legitimate nine-deep rotation that can wear out even the best teams in the field. Florida Atlantic is one of just eight teams left with top-40 efficiency on both ends, with few weaknesses across its entire statistical profile. Leading scorer Johnell Davis is also emerging as a tournament darling after dropping 29 points, 12 rebounds and five assists in Sunday’s win over FDU.
Next up? Tennessee, which beat red-hot Duke by forcing turnovers and taking away easy looks inside, forcing the Blue Devils to rely heavily on their inconsistent 3-point shooting. That won’t be nearly as effective against FAU, which rarely turns it over and generates 37.2 percent of its points via the long ball — the most by any team left in this tournament. That alone makes this team a dangerous play as a title long shot.