Best value choices to reach Final Four
As we enter the Sweet 16, it’s a good time to reevaluate the futures market. I’m fortunate enough to have five teams still alive but even if you don’t have any futures going right now, it’s not too late to make a profit.
Here are my favorite Final Four bets right now in each region that offer bettors value (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
East: Kansas State (+320)
Last weekend in this section I gave out Florida Atlantic +500 to come out of the East. While I still like the Owls’ matchup against Tennessee, it’s hard to ignore Kansas State at +320.
The Wildcats face Michigan State in the Sweet 16 and are two-point underdogs after opening as slight favorites. That makes sense because people are betting into the Tom Izzo factor, but for my money, Kansas State is the better basketball team.
The Wildcats will have the two best players on the floor in Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. I also think Kansas State’s pressure defense will give Michigan State some issues. On paper, the Spartans don’t turn the ball over much but Big Ten defenses don’t pressure guards like schools in the Big 12 or SEC. Just ask Purdue.
Look for the Wildcats’ aggressive guards to be the difference on Thursday. If Kansas State wins that game, it matches up very well with a Tennessee team that struggles against pressure defenses and is without its starting point guard.
FAU/Kansas State would be a wash but if you already bagged the Owls last week, you would be sitting on tickets of +500 and +320.
That’s how I’m attacking the East.
South: San Diego State (+650)
Alabama is the best team in the South but at -145, there isn’t much value in betting the Crimson Tide at this point. I have Creighton at 100/1 to win it all, although one hedge I’m making is betting San Diego State to win the South.
I took San Diego State +7.5 already against Alabama. I really like the way the experienced, athletic Aztecs match up with the top seed. The Crimson Tide rank eighth in 3-point attempts per game. Now they have to face a San Diego State squad that’s the fourth-best in college basketball at defending the 3-point shot.
I see both defenses dominating and a much closer game than many are projecting. If San Diego State gets by Bama, it will be small underdogs to Creighton or big favorites over Princeton. Either way, holding onto a +650 ticket at that point will be well worth it.
Midwest: Texas (+190)
I’m going chalk in the Midwest because Texas is my pick to win it all. Houston is the -115 favorite, so still getting the Longhorns at almost 2/1 isn’t the worst bet you can make.
Texas is -4.5 over Xavier on Friday and would be favorites against Miami if the Hurricanes upset Houston. If it’s the Cougars, look for that line to be right around even.
If you like Texas to reach the Final Four, you will never get better odds than +190.
West: Arkansas (+600)
The West was by far the toughest region entering the tournament and it shows by the last four teams left. I can see any of these four winning the region but the odds on Arkansas are crazy. The Hogs are 4.5-point underdogs against UConn and +160 on the moneyline. The Huskies looked good in dispatching what I thought was an overvalued Saint Mary’s team but could have a tougher time with the athletic Hogs. To beat UConn, teams need to rebound well and force their guards into making mistakes so the Huskies’ big frontline can’t dominate. Arkansas checks both boxes. The Razorbacks are a good rebounding team and their defense ranks 63 in turnover percentage. That’s the recipe to upset a UConn team that ranks 234th in turnover percentage. Arkansas also gets to the foul line a ton and the Huskies rank bottom 50 in opponents’ foul shots per game. The Hogs are live against UConn and also match up well with Gonzaga if the Bulldogs advance.
It may not pan out but +600 is just too much value to pass up.