K-Stating the obvious for Garden tilt
One consequence of the explosion of sports betting is the rise of fools who believe certain outcomes are fixed. If that was the case, Madison Square Garden would’ve chosen a different quartet.
Kansas State (+1.5) over Michigan State: Markquis Nowell is thrilled to be home, though. The Harlem native has arguably been the best player in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 22 points, 11.5 assists, four rebounds and three steals. And his Wildcats — again underdogs against another lowerseeded name brand — have printed money in a routinely undervalued position, going 23-11 against the spread this season. When Kansas State isn’t blowing by Tom Izzo with its quick pace and brilliant ball movement, it will be making life miserable on the perimeter, where it holds opponents to less than 30 percent shooting from deep.
UConn (-4.5) over Arkansas:
Thankfully, Eric Musselman’s shirt will stay on. The first two rounds only confirmed my belief that the Huskies are heading to the Final Four. It started with a 24-point win over a dangerous 13thseeded Iona, led by Rick Pitino. Then came a 15-point win over Saint Mary’s, in which UConn shot 54 percent from the field against one of the best defenses in the nation. Arkansas played to its potential in the upset of Kansas, but the Hogs haven’t displayed much consistency this season, only once winning three straight games since their soft nonconference schedule ended. The Huskies — who have lost once in the past month — won’t be stopped with Adama Sanogo in beast mode, averaging 26 points and 10.5 rebounds, while shooting nearly 73 percent from the field in the tournament.
Tennessee (-5.5) over Florida Atlantic:
The Owls struggled to reach the Sweet 16 despite the gift of playing Fairleigh Dickinson instead of Purdue. And now, the kids from Conference USA play a power conference team for the first time in four months. After physically dominating Duke in Round 2 — limiting the Blue Devils to 52 points — the Vols will have even more success overpowering the smaller mid-major. The team with the best 3-point defense in the nation will disrupt an offense that lives behind the perimeter, and earn multiple second-chance points on the offensive glass, minimizing Rick Barnes’ opportunities for self-inflicted damage.
UCLA (-1.5) over Gonzaga: It will be close, but it will not be anything like the high-scoring Final Four game decided on Jalen Suggs’ buzzer-beater two years ago. Even without Jaylen Clark, the Bruins possess one of the best defenses in the nation, limiting opponents to an average of 60.4 points — including 61 against Arizona’s top-10 attack — since the stopper’s season-ending injury. The Zags’ top-ranked offense has struggled in matchups with slow-paced teams and Gonzaga lost its only two games as an underdog this season. Bruins star Jaime Jaquez Jr. will face less resistance than Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, while UCLA senior Tyger Campbell — fifth in the nation in assist to turnover ratio (3.11 to 1) — will be as dependable as he was (17 points, 7 assists, 1 turnover) the last time he played the Zags.
This season: 22-18-3
2011-22 record: 319-283-9