Lucky or unlucky 13?

Jets-Packers talks for Rodgers may hinge on that first-round pick

Trading the prime years in the careers of NFL greats Tony Gonzalez or Aaron Donald to rent Aaron Rodgers for a season or two sounds like a mistake.

Trading the entire careers of underachievers Nick Fairley or Adam Carriker for Rodgers’ final seasons sounds like a steal.

With negotiations between the Jets and Packers seemingly stalled over whether or not a trade for Rodgers should include the Jets’ first-round pick in the upcoming draft, measuring a 39-year-old fourtime MVP’s value against that No. 13-overall pick is an inexact science.

It won’t be clear until years from now whether the other half of the trade includes a Hall of Famer such as Gonzalez and Donald, another Fairley or Carriker, or a middle ground between those four former No. 13 picks.

“That, I think, could be the sticking point: The No. 13 pick this year as opposed to [the first-round pick] next year when the Jets figure to be in the playoffs and some are thinking maybe Super Bowl,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. “If you are Green Bay, you are thinking, next year’s [Jets’ firstrounder] is at No. 25-32. For Green Bay, also picking at No. 15, they want to be at No. 13 and No. 15. The Jets don’t want to give up No. 13. To me, that’s an offensive lineman.”

Center is the biggest hole on the Jets’ offensive line, but no center has been drafted higher than No. 18 since 2002. The Jets have offensive tackles Duane Brown, Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell under contract, but all of them come with major questions.

How much of the five-time Pro Bowler Brown’s decline is due to age (37) and how much was because he played through a torn rotator cuff last season? Will the oncepromising Becton stay healthy at his slimmed-down weight after he played just one game over the last two injury-plagued seasons? Both Brown and Becton primarily are left tackles. Is Mitchell ready for a bigger workload after he started five games in 2022 as a rookie?

“If you get Aaron Rodgers without the offensive line improving, then [it’s counterproductive],” Kiper said. “You would prefer to have Aaron Rodgers with a young elite offensive lineman coming in. That’s why they are trying to work that all out.”

Eight of the last 10 players who were drafted lucky No. 13 have made a Pro Bowl. So, let’s clear up some trade ambiguity by linking names to the No. 13 pick:

OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State (6-foot-6, 313 pounds):

He started at right guard in 2021 and left tackle in 2022, allowing one quarterback hit on 925 career passblocking snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Pure power makes him “more of the prototypical left tackle/right tackle in the NFL” than Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, who is seen as more of a shortarmed guard, Kiper said.

OT Broderick Jones, Georgia (6-5, 311):

The former basketball star moved his feet with athleticism unexpected at his size during 19 career starts at left tackle, including 15 without a sack allowed last season. “He is kind of an offensive line coach’s dream,” Kiper said.

DL Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (6-2, 282):

If the Jets pivot to replacing Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd and bolstering their eight-man defensive line rotation, “the guy that is red hot right now — I almost put him at No. 10 to Philadelphia is — is Adebawore,” Kiper said. With edge and three-technique interior versatility, he had 12.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in 36 career games and ran the NFL Combine’s fastest 40-yard dash (4.49 seconds) by a 280-pounder since 2006.

The Jets likely must evaluate if one of those talents is worth taking a hard line with the Packers on Rodgers. If the Jets can’t convince the Packers to settle for a second-round pick, would they be able to fix their offensive line need with picks No. 42 (just acquired in the Elijah Moore trade) and No. 43 instead of No. 13? Even if Syracuse’s fast-rising Matthew Bergeron, Tennessee’s Darnell Wright and Oklahoma’s slipping Anton Harrison are picked before No. 42, the answer is promising.

Kiper listed Alabama’s Tyler Steen, BYU’s Blake Freeland, Oklahoma’s Wanya Morris as enticing mid-round options.

“You can even go a little deeper than that in terms of offensive tackles who can play in this league for a long time,” he said.