Numbers don’t lie ... this time
DUSTY May is his real name. I checked. I then learned that Dusty Baker’s given name is Johnnie. That is all. Thank you.
Connecticut (-2.5) over Gonzaga: I hate analytics. I hate its arrogance, its black-and-white outlook, its inability to measure intangibles, its desire to kill debate, its lack of accountability. Still, advanced metrics serve a purpose. It can see past the bias of the eyes and the mind, often painting a more accurate picture of reality. And it was right about UConn all along. It was in mid-January when the Huskies’ 14-0 start to the season faded from memory, replaced by the sting of six losses in eight games. Still, UConn remained an analytics darling, ranked among the nation’s top teams. Currently, the Huskies are only ranked behind top-seeds Alabama and Houston on kenpom.com, and have unquestionably been the top team in the NCAA Tournament, dominating three opponents —and legitimate threats — on both ends of the floor. Gonzaga hasn’t lost since Feb. 4, but the Bulldogs wouldn’t be here today without UCLA coach Mick Cronin’s refusal to double-team Drew Timme and injuries to two Bruins starters. The Huskies’ size, depth and rebounding prowess will prevent Gonzaga from getting so many easy looks again. Stops will be even harder to find for Mark Few against Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. Kansas State (-2.5) over Florida Atlantic: If Harlem’s Markquis Nowell sticks to throwing dimes and running the pick-androll — instead of playing hero ball with deep and contested 3-point attempts — the Wildcats will reach the Final Four for the first time since 1964. The Owls have the balance and depth to come out on top, but the 34win mid-major hasn’t yet played an offense with the ceiling and consistency of Kansas State’s fast-paced attack. Florida Atlantic struggled from 3-point range, going 8-for-27 against Tennessee’s top-ranked perimeter defense. The Wildcats, who have held opponents to less than 30 percent 3-point shooting this season, will cause similar problems. Kansas State has also posted the nation’s fifth-best record against the spread (24-11), while winning every single game outright in which it was the moneyline favorite.
This season: 26-22-3
2011-22 record: 319-283-9