Garcia will make Gervonta work for it
On Saturday night, Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) and Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) will meet in one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Though there isn’t a title on the line, both guys are considered two of the top pound-forpound fighters in the sport with each being ranked Top 6 lightweights by The Ring Magazine.
Davis has been installed as a -250 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook with Garcia a +210 underdog. The fight ending in a draw is 18/1. If you prefer to wager on method of victory, Davis is -135 to win by KO/TKO and +500 to win by decision, while Garcia is +380 to win by stoppage and +650 to win on points.
None of these odds are surprising. Davis is known as a hard puncher with his career knockout-to-win percentage sitting at 93 percent. That’s one of the highest percentages of any active fighter across all divisions. Garcia is no slouch himself with a knockout-to-win percentage of 82.6% but Davis’ power for a lightweight is simply at another level.
Garcia does have a couple of edges in his corner. Though Davis is the hardest puncher at 135 pounds, Garcia might be the fastest. Lightning quick, Garcia’s blueprint for victory is staying on the outside and picking Davis apart with his speed. Garcia is also 5 inches taller than Davis with a 3-inch reach advantage. If Garcia can keep Davis from getting inside and unleashing his devastating knockout power, he has a chance to pull the upset.
That’s easier said than done though. Garcia has shown a tendency to get hit and that cost him back in 2021 when he was dropped by Luke Campbell. If Garcia leaves his chin exposed against Davis, it will be lights out.
Davis tends to start slowly and that could be an issue if this fight goes to a decision. Nevertheless, there are a couple of factors that point to him being victorious. First, Davis has fought the tougher competition thus far in his career. Garcia is a very good fighter but how good is still a bit of an unknown. I also can’t get past Garcia’s defensive weaknesses. Davis is such a devastating puncher that he only needs one opening to end the fight.
One of the great things about boxing is there are multiple ways to bet on the sport beyond which fighter will win. I do believe Davis gets to Garcia in the later rounds. Nevertheless, I don’t see this fight being a walk in the park for Tank.
The bet I like for Saturday is the fight going Over 7.5 rounds. That number (-134) feels a little short and a bit of an overreaction to all of Davis’ quick knockouts. Nevertheless, as I pointed out, Garcia’s size advantage and quickness should allow him to stay on the outside and make Davis work to get inside where he’s the most dangerous. I also believe Davis’ history of starting slow against better competition will help get this fight Over 7.5 rounds.
Looking at his last five fights, three have gone Over 7.5 rounds with the other two ending in Round 6. Expect an entertaining fight that should go at least eight rounds, even if Davis ends up winning by stoppage.