Jumo into Chicago's Bear market
There are fewer than 100 days until the 2023 NFL season kicks off, and you should be prepping for the season and finding value in the futures market right now.
For example, Bears quarterback Justin Fields is massively undervalued in the MVP markets entering 2023 and is worth a wager at the current 18/1 price BetMGM).
The Bears are primed for a breakout season. They added two top-10 linebackers (Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards) and two above-average defensive linemen (DeMarcus Walker, Andrew Billings), and their league-worst defense should improve significantly. The Bears also shored up holes on the offensive line (guard Nate Davis, tackle Darnell White) while upgrading at the skill positions (DJ Moore, Robert Tonyan, D’Onta Foreman).
Sure, Chicago is still a tad weak in the secondary, but Eddie Jackson still has a lot left in the tank.
Ultimately, the Bears should be a vastly improved two-way football team.
The Bears also won the NFL schedule lottery.
Chicago is in an easy, down-and-out NFC North, where the Lions are very overvalued, the Vikings are due for major regression, and the Packers are trying to integrate a new quarterback.
The Bears also pulled out-of-division games with Denver, Carolina, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Washington.
By opposing win totals, the Bears have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2023.
Chicago also got lucky with its rest days. According to Stuckey of The Action Network, the Bears have almost two more weeks of rest than their opponents this upcoming season, including extended rest spots before three divisional games.
Combine the roster improvements and the easy schedule, and you get a team that can smash its win total and potentially win its division.
Fields is at the heart of this. He’s primed to make a classic Year-3 quarterback jump and will have more support than ever.
Fields is one of the deadliest rushing quarterbacks in the league, but he could start to flash that oh-so-enticing arm talent he showed at Ohio State with a better pass-blocking offensive line and better weapons.
Remember, Fields was sacked a league-high 55 times in 2023, and Cole Kmet was his top pass-catcher (544 yards). It’s hard to perform under those circumstances, no matter what your skill set is.
In short, Fields has the dual-action talent to be one of the deadliest quarterbacks in the modern-day NFL, and he finally has the support system to capitalize on that talent. Another year in the same system should also help.
Fields could be the most-improved quarterback for the most-improved team in the NFL. I envision a world where he throws for 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while adding another 700 to 1,000 on the ground for a team that goes from worst to first in the NFC North.
That narrative is worth buying into, and the 18/1 price is worth making a bet on.