’ Putin is attempting the impossible.’

worst from the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Bush warned Ukrainians, in particular, against pursuing immediate independence from Moscow. In remarks penned by Condoleezza Rice, later dubbed the “Chicken Kiev” speech by columnist William Safire, Bush condemned “suicidal nationalism” and appeared to make the case that the Soviet Union was good for free trade among its member republics.

The Ukrainians ignored Bush and declared national independence. That wasn’t tantamount to a declaration of war with Moscow.

Huntington was right: For nearly a quarter century the remarkable thing wasn’t the tensions between Ukraine and Russia but that the friction didn’t ignite into war.

Yet Huntington was not naive about the direction Russia was likely to choose in the future. He defined Russia as the most important “torn country,” forced to decide which civilization it would follow.

“The question of whether Russia is part of the West or the leader of a distinct Slavic-Orthodox civilization has been a recurring one in Russian history,” he wrote. The demise of the USSR raised it again.

What’s happened in the 30 years Western model of non-sectarian liberal democracy.

Huntington’s former student and rival prognosticator of the postCold War world, Francis Fukuyama, envisioned a future in which liberal democracy would inexorably spread. In the three decades since Huntington challenged Fukuyama’s “end of history” thesis, the older scholar has been proved right. The War on Terror was a tragic confirmation.

America fought for 20 years to bring a semblance of liberalism and democracy to Afghanistan, only for the Taliban to retake power the minute our forces left. The outcome is hard to explain in Fukuyama’s terms, but all too predictable according to Huntington.

We embarked on nation-building when the task confronting us was really that of changing a civilization. It never stood a chance.

In Ukraine today, on the other hand, the task is not to change the course of another civilization but to secure a country that has already chosen the West.

Putin is attempting the impossible — he can brutalize a smaller nation, but he can’t overcome its civilization.